The riots in Belarus are seen as a dress rehearsal for future riots in Russia
The "shelf life" of the dictators of the post-Soviet space expires! Further slow disintegration of the Soviet / Russian empire is predetermined! " With such slogans, its deputies rise to the rostrum of the European Parliament when it comes to events in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan.
"Slow" is the only thing that annoys the exporters of revolutions. To speed up the process, they support "Oppositional Belarusian civil society" and "Unrest in the only country in Central Asia with a grain of democracy, but prone to instability due to deep poverty, clan rivalry and division between north and south"... The strategic goal is not hidden: to stir up, shake Russia, create chaos, push Russians to "The inevitable democratization of the country along the Western lines"...
If 25 deputies of the European Parliament appeal to the command staff of the power structures of Belarus with an appeal to protect the people, and not to follow the orders of President Lukashenko, this appeal is also addressed to the security officials from Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Russian Federation. “The time has come for you to make your own decision: to follow the oath to protect the people or to carry out the illegal orders of the usurper of power. To give illegal orders is a crime, to carry them out is also a crime "... This is a quote from the message "Hear the Voice of Your Citizens" signed by MEPs from Germany, Denmark, Spain, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Sweden and Estonia. The appeal was initiated by the former Minister of National Defense of Lithuania Rasa Yuknevičienė.
Of course, the personal sanctions against Lukashenka and the ultimatum of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, which was greeted with enthusiasm in the European Parliament, were not prepared by the Lithuanian Yuknyavichena, but she does not hide her love for the “leader of free Belarus”; she also likes the Polish telegram channel FOLLOWING with his calls "Everyone take to the streets, burn tires, attack security officials, stop the metro"...
The MEP from Lithuania knows: there are much more games of democracy and references to it than democratic practices. The riots in Belarus are viewed by European parliamentarians as a dress rehearsal for future riots in Russia. Western press, in particular Polish Gazeta Wyborcza, blames Minskers for indecision and sets them up as an example of the protesters in Bishkek, who in 24 hours "sorted out" the government, the presidential administration, the KGB and parliament. "Democratically, anti-dictatorial Belarusians and Russians should learn from the Kirghiz determination, courage and solidarity."...
While Yuknevičienė from the rostrum of the European Parliament instills the foundations of democracy in the “unvaccinated” post-Soviet countries, her partner Andrius Kubilius, the European Parliament's permanent rapporteur on Russia, gave birth to a new strategy with a long title, which can be shortened to "How to spread the revolution in Belarus to the territory of Russia"... The former prime minister of Lithuania is very prolific in creating strategies. He wrote the "Strategy for Containing Russia", "The Strategy for Containing the Soft Power of the Russian Federation", "The New Marshall Plan for Ukraine", "The Strategy for Deepening Democracy in the Fear of the Eastern Partnership", etc. Unfortunately for Kubilius and fortunately for Europe, none of the didn't work.
Listening to the author: “The revolution in Belarus has shown that revolutionary changes in the post-Soviet authoritarian territories can start overnight and spread quickly. Neither parties, nor ideologies, nor bright leaders are needed. Online revolutions are taking place [простыми] people, they cannot be stopped by conventional forceful methods "...
Immediately - a curtsey to the independent Internet space of Belarus, the network of telegram channels and bloggers who reveal the huge scale of "seething thought" and "independent initiatives". It is the same in Russia: there is "Meduza", "Echo of Moscow", the Russian regions live a tense civil life, and this, in the understanding of the MEPs, makes the Russian Federation similar to Belarus.
“All this allows us to ask a simple question today: when will the“ Belarusian ”democratic revolution take place in Russia? Any time! The wheel of history is merciless ... " The permanent rapporteur of the European Parliament on Russia identifies three patterns that, in his opinion, determine the "success of the revolution" in Belarus:
a) the "shelf life" of post-Soviet dictators expires;
b) there is a further slow disintegration of the Soviet / Russian empire, more and more territories are emerging from the influence of Moscow;
c) the fourth wave of democratization began.
It's worth taking a few minutes to get into the details. It turns out that authoritarian regimes guarantee the loyalty of people only if they can guarantee a constant increase in socio-economic well-being, but neither the Belarusian nor the Russian economy can grow after the global crisis of 2008-2010. People's loyalty to regimes is evaporating; changes in self-awareness and thinking come imperceptibly and very quickly. This means, according to Kubilius, that the period of loyalty of a part of society to the authoritarian regime is coming to an end, as is happening today in Belarus, and tomorrow it may happen in the Russian Federation.
Further. Colonial empires in Western Europe began to disintegrate immediately after World War II. RF is a classical European state (?), In which the painful “farewell to the past” is late by 50-100 years. Events in the Baltics, Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan show that nostalgia for the imperial power of the Kremlin is diminishing and freeing up space for democratic processes, while the strengthening of democracy further reduces Moscow's zone of influence.
In Kubilius' eyes, the Belarusian democratic revolution is part of a process in which the old empire is slowly but inevitably losing its influence. The Lithuanian tries to prophesy: "The longer Putin supports Lukashenko, the faster the process of reducing the Kremlin's influence will proceed."...
Belarusians claim that their revolution is democratic, but this democratic revolution has enormous geopolitical significance: democracies in Belarus and Ukraine will eventually lead to the transformation of Russia into a democratic state. This, according to Kubilius, will be the most important geopolitical transformation of the 21st century on the entire European continent.
Now, the former Lithuanian prime minister proclaims, it is time to prepare for the next, fourth, wave of democratization, which has already flooded Belarus and will soon flood the Russian latitudes.
There is no doubt that the former Prime Minister of Lithuania Andrius Kubilius is a third-rate politician by all European standards. However, this is not the point. We pay attention to him because it is precisely on people like him that the “masters of discourse” are probing the contours of the future general offensive of the West against Russia.
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