Germany admits the revision of the Nord Stream 2 agreement. This was stated by a representative of the Federal Association for Economic Development and Foreign Trade of Germany Urs Unkauf.
In his opinion, if the Greens come to power, difficulties may arise with the supply of natural gas, in addition, negotiations with Moscow in the energy sector will be more difficult, since this party has not established ties with Russia in recent years.
“Even if the Greens do not lead the coalition, the formation of a new government will nevertheless be followed by a revision of Germany’s energy policy within the framework of the new green paradigm.”, – he said in an interview with Izvestia.
He hopes that the launch of Russian gas to Germany and other European countries will create new ties to ensure the sustainability of the relationship. Meanwhile, the winter season has begun, Europe does not have time to fill the blue fuel storage facilities, gas is already becoming “gold” – on Monday a thousand cubic meters cost $ 880, because of the rise in prices for it, enterprises are already beginning to close.
Member of the German Bundestag Committee on International Affairs, representative of the Alternative for Germany party Waldemar Gerdt outraged by the policy of the Greens, whose actions, if they enter the government, can lead to collapse. According to him, this pocket party of Germany’s overseas friends deeply does not care about their own people and country. At the same time, the politician recalled the responsibility of the authorities for providing heat and electricity to kindergartens, schools, enterprises, which should “Sober up even the Greens”, including in relation to “Nord Stream-2”. He believes that pricing is killing the industry, an increase in the cost of housing and communal services is inevitable, and citizens will soon feel all this on their wallets.
“And prices can rise further, because the German government for some reason decided that we do not need stable long-term gas prices, and gave it to speculators to buy it out in the presence of an existing deficit.”– declaring Waldemar Gerdt RIA Novosti.
Gas price surges on the exchange are a consequence of market liberalization and are associated with various factors, for example, panic, notes Stanislav Mitrakhovich, leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund, lecturer at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation:
– What will happen next depends on the circumstances, starting with fundamental ones – for example, what will happen to the weather. Winds are expected to start blowing in the North Sea, wind power starts to operate, and gas demand in the UK and Germany could decline, which could lower prices. But this is an unreliable forecast.
In Asia, prices are quite high, and Asian traders are buying gas in anticipation of winter. Europe has also started to actively buy up gas.
On the other hand, next month the heating season begins, gas will be taken from storage facilities where there is not much gas. Much will depend on how quickly the autumn gets colder, warm or cold.
Gazprom is in no hurry to fill Europe with gas, it has responsibilities for gas supplies within Russia, filling Russian storage facilities. In addition, there is another motive for this – pushing Europe towards a faster launch of Nord Stream 2. This does not mean that Gazprom is not fulfilling contract applications. He fulfills them at a very high level: recently the company made a statement that 138 billion cubic meters were delivered to the far abroad in 8 and a half months of 2021, and at the peak of 2018 (a record year) it was 142.
Much will depend on news on Nord Stream 2 and the European Commission’s antitrust investigation into Gazprom. If, for example, there are statements about a 10% turnover penalty, then this will warm up the market, because this is a conflict between the European Commission and the main gas supplier.
If the news is moderate, for example, some MEPs said something, but tough measures or statements by heads of state (Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron etc.) no, then the situation, I think, will gradually return to normal. The layout will also depend on when Nord Stream 2 is certified – in the near future or by mid-2022.
“SP”: – There is a lot of news about the closure of enterprises in Europe due to the rise in gas prices. Why do European and German structures continue to obstruct the already ready-to-launch Nord Stream 2, in fact pushing Europe towards economic suicide?
– It may be far from suicide, although Goldman Sachs has already officially written in the forecast that it does not rule out blackouts in Europe in winter. The British press every day comes out with news about the electrical crisis, although they should have discussed it about three months ago, when everything was brewing, prices were rising, and not now, but the statements of officials were reassuring.
Companies that make fertilizers are being closed. In the production of fertilizers, CO2 is also produced for technical needs, for example, for the production of packaging. There was news that there is not enough CO2 for farming and food production. There was a restriction on the supply of buckwheat to Europe, it turns out to be in this too Putin, which supplies little gas, is to blame, because some producers find it inconvenient to work because of expensive electricity, and they cut off supplies.
There are risks, but many politicians, Americans are opposed to Nord Stream 2, all this leads to delays. In addition, they need to admit that they were wrong in opposing Nord Stream 2, and they really do not want to do this.
The German network regulator is awaiting news regarding the formation of a new government coalition following the elections, which will only take place on 26 September. I think the bureaucrats do not want to take on the decision that the new government will have to deal with. So we are waiting for at least the elections in Germany. The case may be delayed, since the bureaucratic mechanism makes it possible to delay the decision on Nord Stream 2 for another 10 months.
SP: How much can the arrival of the Greens in the German government complicate the situation with Nord Stream 2?
“The Greens do not like us, and for a very long time. Not only our energy policy, but modern Russia in general and its various actions. One of the leaders of the Green Party recently came to Ukraine and said that he was going to arm it, effectively pushing for a military clash with Russia. This is not really a joke. He was criticized within the party itself, but this is not an ordinary member, but one of the co-chairs!
If we recall the last voting in the Bundestag, then no other party supported the radical position of the Greens regarding Nord Stream 2. However, at the debates from some representatives of other parties it sounded that maybe they will listen to the Greens. So the question is how much they will receive, what kind of coalition will be. If the Greens play a secondary role in it, nothing will fundamentally change. If they get important posts, and they try, then they will interfere with the project. There may already be claims from companies that have invested in the Nord Stream 2 project and its onshore branch in Germany and the Czech Republic.
In addition, a coalition with the Greens in important roles will mean further increases in gas prices in Europe. At least they will not fall. Europe should consider whether this situation suits it.
“SP”: – The situation with “Nord Stream-2” will not lead to a conflict between Berlin and Brussels with Moscow?
– The current leadership of Germany supports the project and is not going to leave this position. Further it will depend on the coalition. If the Greens take important posts, a conflict is possible not only over Nord Stream 2.
Brussels hindered Gazprom in every possible way before. The last antitrust investigation in 2018 ended with a compromise – Gazprom made a number of concessions: it gave concessions on a virtual reverse, according to the rule “Choose or Pay”but that does not mean that a new investigation cannot occur. However, for them, this is also a risk – a quarrel with the largest supplier at a time when gas is badly needed will drive up prices even more. Are European bureaucrats ready to do this? They will also face public discontent. In Spain, rallies have already taken place on the topic of increasing the cost of housing and communal services. A similar development of events is possible in the future. And how will they then hold on to power? This is not an easy question for them.