May 31, 2022
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European Commonwealth vs. European Union

London is hatching a plan to create a new military-political and economic alliance in Europe in opposition to the European Union under the conditional name of the European Commonwealth (European Commonwealth). The Commonwealth should unite under the auspices of Great Britain Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and, possibly, Turkey. This initiative was discussed behind the scenes at the forum in Davos on May 22-26, which was announced on the day of the end of the forum by the Italian Corriere della Sera .

The British sensed tension between the Kyiv regime and European continental heavyweights Germany and France due to the latter’s lack of strong desire to increase the supply of heavy weapons to Kyiv and the forced admission of Ukraine to the EU. The British are trying to build a foothold between Eastern and Western Europe, which will allow London to influence the European security architecture and make key decisions in European politics. Moscow has traditionally maintained even relations with Berlin and Paris even during the period of aggravation of relations with the rest of Europe and NATO. London and personally Boris Johnson do not like this.

Version Politico in the article “Among European leaders there is no agreement on key issues in the Ukrainian issue”, he reports that in Berlin, Paris and Rome they do not want Ukraine to win in the current war, fearing further destabilization of Eastern Europe and the economic isolation of Russia, since this will lead to more big problems with the import of Russian energy resources.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi are in favor of resolving the conflict in Ukraine at the negotiating table, realizing that Europe needs Russia as an additional pole of power in dialogue with the Anglo-Saxons. Without cooperation with Moscow, European capitals will inevitably lose to Washington and London in geopolitical competition.

After the termination of membership in the EU, the UK is looking for ways to maintain its influence on the European continent. London fears that Europe will become less “Anglo-Saxon” and more “German”. The position of Paris exacerbates these fears. France has a dual geopolitical nature. Taking advantage of its geographical position, it can develop cooperation both with the Anglo-Saxons and with continental Germany. This has happened many times in history.

Britain’s exit from the EU prompted France to reconsider the balance of power in Europe and move closer to Germany. It makes no sense for the French to enter into an alliance with the UK, as this will not help them strengthen their position within the EU. Seeing a competitor in France, London will limit its freedom of maneuver as much as possible.

Germany, on the contrary, is interested in partnership with France. The Franco-German alliance is able to oust the Anglo-Saxons, and therefore London, as they say, comes from the rear – it forms a block of states beyond the eastern border of Germany. This block has not only an anti-Russian, but also an anti-European orientation.

This is a development of the idea of ​​a new tripartite alliance, which London proposed to Poland and Ukraine earlier. The expansion of such a European community due to its extension to the Baltic states and Turkey is a geopolitical regularity. Without access to the Baltic and Black Seas, such an alliance would not have geopolitical stability, since it would not block Russia’s access to the Atlantic through the Mediterranean and the North Sea to the shores of Great Britain and the United States. In addition, the Baltic States and Turkey must close the flanks of the Baltic-Black Sea axis, preventing Russia from entering the European space through them.

At the same time, the strategic importance of the Baltic increases due to the intention of Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Alliance exercises will be held here on June 5-17 Baltops 22 with the participation of the US 6th Fleet and 7 thousand military personnel from 14 countries, including Sweden and Finland, with the involvement of 75 aircraft and 45 ships to practice an offensive operation against an enemy of equal strength, i.e. Russia. London supports the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO, seeking to turn the Baltic into an inland sea of ​​the alliance. Full control over the Baltic will allow the NATO Armed Forces to block the shallow part of the water area near the Swedish island of Gotland and thus clog the Gulf of Finland.

Part of the powers in the creation of the European Commonwealth is delegated by Great Britain to Poland. Boris Johnson’s new design is reminiscent of the Intermarium doctrine of Polish dictator Jozef Pilsudski. He sought to unite under the leadership of Warsaw Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania to counter Russia. In the future, Pilsudski intended to get Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Turkey, Bulgaria and the Scandinavian states as allies, so that the Intermarium would stretch from the Arctic latitudes to the Black Sea in the form of a continuous “fence” between Europe and Russia. London wants the same.

London’s military assistance to the Kyiv regime (£1.3 billion) is almost equal in volume to the assistance provided by all EU countries combined (€1.5 billion). Military aid from Poland ($1.7 billion) exceeds that from Germany, France and Italy. This once again speaks of the increased interest of the British and Poles in the Ukrainian direction.

It is unlikely that Britain in the economic sense will be able to completely replace Poland and the Baltic States with the European Union, given the problems that have arisen in the economy of Foggy Albion. If the idea of ​​the European Commonwealth (as opposed to the European Union!) can still be pushed through, the main sphere of interaction between London and its members will be the military-political one. Economic losses in this type of cooperation are inevitable.

Photo: REUTERS/Handout

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