Aug 24, 2022
0 0

Erdogan attacked Putin

August 24, 2022 is not only six months since the start of the special operation. It is also 31 years since the declaration of independence of Ukraine. And so I sit and think: which of Putin’s current closest foreign policy partners managed to most heartily congratulate official Kyiv on this “red day of the calendar”?

Contender number one: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko: “I am convinced that today’s contradictions will not be able to destroy the centuries-old foundation of sincere good-neighborly relations between the peoples of the two countries …” The head of the Belarusian state wished the Ukrainians a peaceful sky, tolerance, courage, strength and success in restoring a decent life. Turkish President Recep Erdogan (through his representative Ibrahim Kalin): according to Ankara’s position, the return of Crimea to Ukraine should be part of any agreement between Moscow and Kyiv.

I can’t choose which of these two “worthy contenders” to give the palm to. Official Minsk is clearly cooler in terms of trolling, official Ankara – in terms of Jesuitism. Ibrahim Kalyn is a familiar character for those citizens of the Russian Federation who are actively interested in foreign policy. And he is familiar primarily because of his statement at the end of June: “This does not justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But when you look at what has happened over the past 30 years, you have to consider the causal relationship, this is the actions of the West, and the expansion of NATO. We also object to this wrong world order.”

How so, Ibrahim? You either “oppose this wrong world order” or you are trying to restore this world order in its most offensive and unacceptable manifestation for the Kremlin. Combining these two positions seems to be impossible. In theory, “seemingly impossible” – but in practice, how possible. The semiannual “anniversary” of the special operation is a date that once again shows how beneficial in relation to Moscow’s actions the position “on the fence” is for those foreign leaders who managed to take it.

To say that Lukashenka is now in full chocolate would probably not be entirely correct. The Old Man has serious economic problems. Previously, he provided splendor in the Belarusian economy, including through the resale of Russian oil products to the West. You buy at preferential prices, you sell at non-preferential prices (for the buyer, not for yourself). The beauty!

Now this shop has closed: the West has included the official Minsk among the sanctioned “friends of Putin” and blocked him from selling both oil and potash fertilizers. It’s a shame, of course. But for all the costs and problems, Lukashenka retained for Belarus the freedom to maneuver for foreign policy in the future, which is now “beyond the horizon.” Having greatly assisted and still actively assisting the Russian special operation, Lukashenka did not make his country a direct participant in it. Old Man still manages to masterfully play on the edge.

Erdogan is even better at such a game, if not because he has more political talents, then certainly because he has more political, security and other resources. Yes, the West is now putting powerful pressure on the Turkish president, from whose point of view Ankara has become too close to Moscow. Apparently, it is precisely this circumstance that makes the Turkish leadership generously scatter statements that are clearly unacceptable to the Kremlin about the surrender of Crimea as a mandatory condition for any peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. But do these statements have at least some applied political significance? No, they don’t. And not only because, as Ibrahim Kalin rightly noted, the official position of Turkey has not changed since 2014. Another, more compelling reason is that six months after the start of the special operation, any “agreement between Russia and Ukraine” is a purely hypothetical possibility.

“We know that time is not on the side of Ukraine. We understand the urgency, and we will continue to try to comply,” US White House spokesman John Kirby just said. Where is the emphasis in this statement – on the fact that “time is not on the side of Ukraine”, or on the fact that the Americans are “trying to comply”? Let’s take this question as a rhetorical one.

But official Kyiv is now definitely focusing on escalation. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that he was very afraid of the “fatigue” of the world community from the Russian special operation: “I call it fatigue syndrome, and for me this is one of the main threats. We need to work with her, communicate, interact, ask people to avoid this fatigue. Because it’s very, very dangerous for us.”

The main conclusion is that official Kyiv itself is not yet “tired” at all. And this conclusion is supported by facts. An increase in the campaign of terror against the leadership of the territories over which the Zelensky regime has lost control. This time. The transfer of the campaign of terror deep into the territory of Russia (the murder of Daria Dugina). This is two. Strengthening sabotage activities in the Crimea. It’s three.

The Zelensky team is gradually parting with the remnants of their internal prohibitions. And I “respect” Lukashenka and Erdogan more and more. In contrast to a similar physical situation, politically “sitting on the fence” is both easy and pleasant.

Article Categories:

Leave a Reply