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Sep 19, 2021
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Election 2021: State Duma Leaving, Old Liberals Out

Election 2021: State Duma Leaving to the Left, Old Liberals Out

Photo: Sergey Fadeichev / TASS

In Russia, the triune day of voting has ended, following which the 13th convocation of the State Duma will be formed. The turnout was just over 40%. This is lower than in the 2016 State Duma elections (47.88%).

According to the CEC, after processing 9.08% of the protocols, United Russia gains 38.75% of the vote, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – 25.05%, the Liberal Democratic Party – 9.6%, New People – 7.88%, SPZP – 6. 64%, “Party of Pensioners” – 3.2%, the rest about 1% or less.

Data from the Far East and Siberia, where the voting ended earlier, is received unevenly. Here is some of them:

In the Sakhalin region after processing 99% of the protocols: ER – 36.3%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – 29.45%, “New People” – 9.28%.

In Chukotka, after counting 18.18% of the protocols: United Russia – 46.12%, LDPR – 21.39%, KPRF – 16.51%, SPZP – 12.27%.

In Yakutia, after processing 50.97% of the protocols: ER – 39.85%, KPRF – 34.21%, New People – 7.56%, SPZP – 6.75%, LDPR – 4.51%.

According to the results of the processing of votes at 400 polling stations in the Irkutsk region: United Russia – 38%, Communist Party – 28%, “New People” – 9%, LDPR – 8%, SPZP – 7%.

In Buryatia, where 40% of the protocols were processed: ER – 42%, KPRF – 26%, New People – 10%.

The general preliminary picture can be given by the data of the exit pool of the presidential administration, published on September 19 by the editor-in-chief of “Echo of Moscow” Alexei Venediktov marked “Stole from the Old Square“:” United Russia “- 47.1%, Communist Party – 19.2%, LDPR – 8.8%, SRHR – 8.6%,” New People “- 5.1%,” Yabloko “- 1.3 %.

The official results will be announced in the morning, but the trends are already more or less obvious. The State Duma is likely to move to the left because of the comparatively high results of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the SPZP. At the same time, a new faction may appear in parliament – the New People party.

– The first main question now: how much will the Communist Party receive in the end? – reasoning political scientist Dmitry Elovsky… – Because they are the main beneficiaries of the growth of protest sentiments. For all exit pools, polls, they really increased their indicators. But the size of their faction in the new State Duma will also depend on how many mandates they receive in single-mandate constituencies.

The second main question: will the “New People” overcome the 5% barrier? So far, with a probability of 80 percent, they pass. And this is a completely new story. After all, the composition of the State Duma has not changed for many years. This is a response to the Russians’ request for new faces in parliament.

Judging by their lists, most of the people there are not professional politicians. They have no experience of working in elected bodies. But they do not have a blinkered, fresh perspective on problems. And this can have a very interesting effect.

The third important question: will A Just Russia For Truth pass the 5% barrier? After all, if not, these votes will go to United Russia, and the party itself drops out of the parliamentary four. This will be a collapse for the party. The restart was an attempt to save her.

“SP”: – The figures of the polls show that the SPZP is approximately on the same level with the Liberal Democratic Party …

– If they do pass the barrier, then there will be five factions in the State Duma. This means that they will be smaller in size. That is, it will be more difficult for them to negotiate with each other. And United Russia will make separate deals with one of the parties, as it has done more than once, on the contrary, it will be easier.

“SP”: – How can you assess the impact of the triune voting day on the balance of power?

– The three-day voting primarily works for the ruling party. For this, this system was introduced. On Friday, on a working day, you can mobilize, gather employees from different companies and more or less purposefully bring them to the sites.

In addition, the three-day voting is beneficial for those who, in principle, know how to work well in elections, quickly analyze the situation at the polling stations and in the fields, and quickly rebuild. This format expands the possibilities for decision making.

Because of this, the role of exit pools has now greatly increased, giving professional political strategists an endless time resource to correct the situation. You can use the campaign network, mobilize supporters and their friends. This is perfectly legal. Although there are illegal methods.

“SP”: – Electronic voting significantly influenced the situation? In Moscow, the turnout is approaching 100 percent …

– It is clear that the turnout here will be higher, because this is an opportunity not to go anywhere, to save time. Another question is how it will show itself. It is still too early to talk about the effect. The main problem is distrust. People think that e-voting can be used to tweak the results.

First Secretary of the Khabarovsk Regional Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Pyotr Perevezentsev confirmed the success of the left opposition in the Far East.

– Now we have processed about 50 percent of the ballots. We, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, confidently occupy the first place. On the second “United Russia”, on the third the Liberal Democratic Party. So far, the trend is this. But there is still no data from military garrisons. The turnout is over 40 percent – the highest in the last six years. Perhaps this influenced the fact that we got such a good result. Although much was done to dry up the attendance so that people would not go. But, unfortunately, we are losing in the single-mandate constituency where I am running.

Evaluation of new and old persons in the electoral process was given by Director of the Institute of Freedom Fyodor Biryukov:

– “New people” are actually Kremlin liberals. They can show results. Indeed, throughout the campaign, they enjoyed tremendous media support. The resources and funds were also involved very large, and on both sides. But if they do not physically collect the necessary number of votes to enter the State Duma, then, of course, they will not be artificially pulled into parliament.

“SP”: – At a minimum, they will receive government funding, as required by law, for those who won more than three percent of the vote. But “Yabloko”, it seems, will be removed from the state pleasure …

– The ballot contains the “Party of Growth”, “Civic Platform”, but “Yabloko” is the most radical liberal party among those participating in the elections. She has long opposed herself not only to the Kremlin authorities, but also to the Russian voters, putting forward theses that are denied by the majority of the people of Russia. This is both non-recognition of Crimea as Russian, and an unwise position on relations with the West.

In fact, this is a rotten fruit, from which voters are fleeing, since it is not from the tree of knowledge of good and evil, and even more so not from the tree of life, and is completely poisoned by political pesticides. Bite off it and die. The meaning of Yabloko’s existence is solely in portraying the presence of a radical liberal opposition for the Western viewer. In its pure form, it is “demshiza”, outdated, archaic, museum.

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