There is a well-known saying: “What is good for a Russian, death for a German”, the origin of which is attributed to 1794, when the Russian troops under the command of Alexandra Suvorova they took Prague by storm. Not the Czech capital – that was the name of the suburb of Warsaw. The German in this story happened by accident – he passed by Russian soldiers who were drinking alcohol from a bottle obtained in a pharmacy. He thought it was water, took a gulp of the offered mug in one gulp and … died. The tale is a lie, but there is a hint in it, the lesson of which has been repeatedly confirmed by historical facts.
The recently completed joint Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises Zapad-2021, which took place from September 10 to 16 with the participation of about two hundred thousand people at five Belarusian and nine Russian training grounds, with the involvement of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy, confirmed the relevance of this saying. Russians, represented by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu, the past exercises brought at least satisfaction – they showed the ability of the two states to successfully ensure regional security. “Germans”, through the mouth of the head of the operational command of the armed forces of Poland, Lieutenant General Tomas Piotrowski, the current exercise allowed the Russian army to test an attack against NATO and made it “suffer greatly” from the Russian provocations that took place during the Russian-Belarusian maneuvers.
“We have no doubt that Russia is determined to return to the arena as a world power. When Russia plans to conduct exercises, we suffer greatly, and not only directly during the exercises. Russia uses methods of information warfare, provocations, coercive measures, espionage and cyber operations. All this was carried out during the Zapad-2021 exercise, – the Polish general said at a meeting of the Warsaw Security Forum, which took place on October 8. “This year, the exercises“ West ”turned out to be larger than those that took place in 2020 and 2019 – not only in terms of the number of military personnel, but also in terms of the range of means that were involved, by type of troops, including airborne troops, special forces, naval forces and so on, ”Piotrovsky complained.
Shoigu, summing up the results of the Zapad-2021 exercises on October 6, in his own words, unlike his Polish colleague, did not allow Yaroslavna to cry. I limited myself to short but succinct phrases. “I consider the objectives of the exercises have been achieved, the educational questions have been worked out in full. We managed to test a lot in practice, ”the Russian Minister of Defense said, stressing that the maneuvers were based on the development of new forms and methods of warfare, taking into account the peculiarities of modern local wars and armed conflicts. In particular, Shoigu spoke about the first night landing at night and in adverse weather conditions of 30 units of a new generation of airborne assault vehicles – BMD-4M. It is likely that this fact also made the Polish generals “suffer greatly”.
By the way, Piotrovsky’s colleague from the Bundeswehr, Lieutenant General Andreas Marlowe, who commands the 1st German-Dutch Corps, said at the same Warsaw Security Forum that NATO has a different “threat perception”. He believes that allies in the alliance, who are on the border with Russia, perceive the threat differently. In Poland, the words of the German general were not appreciated.
– The consequences of the Zapad-2021 exercises for Poland should be assessed in two ways, – believes political scientist Alexander Zimovsky… – Firstly, Polish stratedzy kanapowi (sofa strategists) opened hostilities on the Internet three months before the start of the Russian-Belarusian stage of the maneuvers. All these three months, the Poles fanned the hype about the “Russian / Belarusian threat”, about the “Suwalki corridor”, “Russian amphibious assault in Gdansk and Szczecin,” and in general, “Putin is riding a bear, we will all die.”
At the same time, all the attention of the Polish media and Polish assaholics (and there are thousands of them feeding on the topic of “Russians are coming”, from Polish bloggers-rogue, to rogue politicians from the Belvedere Palace in Warsaw) was focused exclusively on joint combat training in Belarus. The last sobs came from Warsaw in pursuit of the echelons with Russian tanks leaving to the east two weeks ago.
Secondly, there was, naturally, some period of comprehension of the results of “West-2021” after the fact. And, most likely, the most active Polish “experts” had to undergo intensive detoxification courses from the stoned one while tracking our maneuvers. The residual phenomena were preserved anyway. Here, I caught such a relapse. A certain pan Music (in a good way) presented the plan of our attack on Poland with the Belarusians. This plan was born by Pan Muzyka on Twitter following the results of the Zapad-2021 exercises. I’ll decode it for you.
We will attack Poland with the forces of three armies. The First Panzer Army attacks the Suwalki Corridor from the Grodno region. And also to Ostrolenka, and to Pultusk. In the area of Pultusk we are dropping troops.
The combined arms army from the Brest region advances south of Warsaw with a general direction to Lodz, covering Lublin with its left flank. In the course of the operation, we are throwing out two more troops there.
East of Minsk, on the Borisov-Osipovichi line, another of our combined-arms army is located in the second echelon, which will suit the Poles with finis coronat opus – the end is the crown of business.
Of course, when looking at the plan of the operation, the first thing that comes to your mind is whether Pan Muzyka is playing football? His operational formations are very similar to the schemes of outstanding and glorious battles drawn up by cadet Bigler, a character from a book about the gallant soldier Schweik.
In defense of Polish bloggers / analysts / politicians / generals, I can only say that military planning has never been the strong point of the Poles. They have excellent human soldier material, steadfast and selfless, especially on the offensive. We also know the brave Polish officers, lancers with colorful badges, with a saber on a tank, that’s all. But when it comes to a level above the squadron, the Polish military genius fades away. He’s bored. Therefore, all the outstanding campaigns of both the First and Second Rzeczpospolita were planned and carried out by foreigners – Russians, Romanians, Magyars, Lithuanians, French, Swedes and Saxons in Polish service.
This is usually forgotten, but in 1939 the Poles did not even have a war / defense plan for Poland. And there was a synopsis a la pan Muzyka, according to which the Poles were going to fight with Hitler; compendium of the Polish commander-in-chief marshal Rydz-Smigly kept in a safe, like Colonel Kudasov’s. And he showed this summary to the commanders of the Polish armies, summoning them to headquarters one by one. So the Polish generals, long before September 1, 1939, had no idea what tasks the neighbor on the left and the neighbor on the right had. And on September 2, even the outline itself became a pack of pipifax, and the marshal took it with him to Romania. We must pay tribute to this Polish commander – Rydz-Smigly planned his personal super-speed retreat brilliantly.
When we take this combination of military-historical and blogger-strategic facts into account, the assessments by the Poles and NATO of the results of the Zapad-2021 exercises will fall into place. The Poles and NATO as a whole see Russia and Belarus as an existential threat, not a military one.
Hence the goal-setting – to strive not to weaken Russia and Belarus in the military sense, but to strive for neither Russia nor Belarus to exist at all. You can’t fix anything here, because the devastation is not in the Polish closets, which are poorly cleaned by lazy Ukrainian guest workers. Ruin in Polish heads. But even half-ruined Polish heads should remember that any self-respecting Western European existentialist must begin by destroying Poland.
Here we can recall that the large-scale exercises of recent years, which the Russian army regularly conducts, always arouse increased attention abroad and become a reason for the imaginary fears of neighboring states. For example, the Zapad-2017 exercises, which were partially held on the territory of Belarus, alarmed Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, and at the same time Ukraine, which suspected these maneuvers as preparation for an invasion of their territory. Vostok-2018 allegedly scared Japan, especially due to the participation of the Chinese military in the exercises. “Center-2019”, in which the military from China, India, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were involved, in its geographical position covered almost the entire southern and eastern “underbelly” of Russia, right up to the Indian Ocean. Washington got very nervous about this, accusing Moscow of putting pressure on the countries of the Caspian region.
The Caucasus-2020 exercises, in which the military of Armenia, as the CSTO countries, also took part, were no exception. Against the background of the Armenian-Azerbaijani armed conflict, the maneuvers of the Russian army near its southern borders caused concern in Baku, where they suspected its interference in the territorial dispute. However, Azerbaijan was notified in advance of the start of the exercises – Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on July 18, 2020 in a telephone conversation with his Azerbaijani counterpart Zakir Hasanov discussed with him the issues of interaction and cooperation, and also explained that the exercises are not connected with clashes on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
If the fear of the Poles still does not let go, it is useful to look also at the “Globe of Belarus”. According to the concept of the Zapad-2021 exercises, the bulk of the ground forces that took part in the deployment for further actions were stationed at the Brest and Obuz-Lesnovsky ranges. There were about 180 kilometers between them, that is, there was not even a hint of an attempt to organize a meaningful echeloned formation of the entire aggregate mass of people and military equipment. In general, the Poles should not have “suffered much”.