Oct 22, 2021
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Donbass: The offensive will begin “closer to winter”

Donbass: The offensive will begin "closer to winter"

Photo: AP / TASS

Vladimir Zelensky instructed the military and security officials to prepare for a full-scale war in the Donbass. Corresponding information with reference to its own source in the president’s office was published by the Ukrainian Telegram channel “Legitimny”.

According to an insider, the “hot phase” will begin “closer to winter.” And this scenario was allegedly already discussed at a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC).

However, there have been many such statements lately – from Zelensky, and from members of his team, and from various military leaders of the Ministry of Defense.

Just last week, for example, an advisor to the head of the OP Alexey Arestovich said that nine scenarios of “a possible attack from the Russian Federation” have already been developed, and Kiev is ready for any of them.

Earlier, Zelensky himself spoke in the same vein.

Speaking on September 10 at the Yalta European Strategy Forum in Kiev, the Ukrainian leader publicly admitted the likelihood of a large-scale war between the two countries, accusing Russia along the way of allegedly “not wanting to end the conflict in Donbass” – although Moscow, as you know, is not a party to this conflict …

Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov noted then that the Kremlin “regrets” such statements by the President of Ukraine and would not want to indulge in “apocalyptic expectations.”

Of course, when Kiev strategists talk about a war with Russia – and for them it is almost a ritual – there is more bravado and crazy fantasies in their words. The Russian army of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is too tough, and they will never enter into open battle with it. But to take revenge on the LDNR for the fact that they do not want to submit to the ideological Bandera supporters in any way fits into the ideology of modern punishers.

Leading Researcher, RISS Oleg Nemensky, for example, suggested that Zelensky is now counting on a large-scale war in the southeast as a “saving straw”.

“The aggravation of contradictions in Ukraine is growing before our eyes, and in this regard there is a danger, a very alarming danger that they will try to remove internal contradictions, at least public attention to contradictions, through the war in Donbass,” the political scientist said on the YouTube channel ” RISS “.

He also noted that “a number of experts in the government circles of Kiev are discussing this option and take it quite seriously.”

The sociologist has no doubts that escalation is possible Evgeny Kopatko – Zelensky and his entourage set too “high the bar for conflict”, he believes. And the rhetoric of these characters “does not provide for any compromises and agreements.”

Kopatko recalled that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recently allowed their units in the Donbass to open fire without the approval of the top leadership. That is, in his opinion, there is a risk, “the only question is for what purpose and to what extent it will be implemented”.

But there is not much time left before winter – indicated by the informant – “X hour” – less than a month and a half. And whether the armed formations of Ukraine will be able to meet this deadline with preparation for a major offensive is still a question.

JV asked the well-known military commander “KP” Dmitry Steshin

– As far as I remember, there were about fifty such “exact dates” for the start of hostilities. I was in Donbass this spring, when the aggravation there coincided, indeed, with serious steps. The Russian army was then in the border area of ​​Donbass, where it was conducting exercises. The Sea of ​​Azov was officially closed off by the RF Ministry of Defense – i.e. became the inland sea of ​​Russia. And everything pointed to the imminent start of the war, but the war did not happen again.

At the moment, there is no intelligence that Ukraine received massive aid with equipment and ammunition to launch a large-scale offensive in Donbas. Because for the past five years, ATO participants – both officers and privates – have been complaining about the lack of ammunition.

The fact is that the only enterprise for the production of cartridges for automatic weapons remained in Lugansk. And it works for the defense of Donbass, not Ukraine.

“SP”: – But recently the second consignment of military-technical assistance from the US government was delivered to Kiev. There are weapons, ammunition, precision weapons and even radar surveillance equipment …

– It’s all a trifle – about nothing. I can give you a historical example: in 2015, the American army in Iraq deliberately surrendered the city of Mosul of 5 million in order to simultaneously support ISIS * with a large amount of ammunition. Well, it was simply impossible to secretly transfer such a quantity of ammunition to the ISIS. Therefore, they surrendered the whole city.

Nothing of the kind has yet been observed.

They will not divulge military secrets, but I will say that in the Azov region, the line of defense of the DPR troops looks, for example, like the line of defense of the French at Maginot. It is impossible to break through without some absolutely terrible artillery preparation with heavy calibers or tactical nuclear charges.

That is, how the Ukrainian warriors will break through it is not very clear.

But it is perfectly clear, at the same time, that Kiev is deliberately aggravating. Because only as a deliberate provocation can the actions of the Ukrainian special services be regarded, which actually stole an observer officer from the JCCC in broad daylight.

“SP”: – Moreover, the kidnapped Andrei Kosyak is also a citizen of Russia …

– Yes, he has a stamp on the receipt of a Russian passport in his military ID.

By the way, when I talked in the Donbass in the spring with local “femeies”, they predicted that by October a million residents of the DPR and LPR would receive Russian passports.

That is, any massive attack on Donetsk or Lugansk is a massive death of Russian citizens, and not citizens of the so-called “unrecognized republics” of certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. And this is, as it were, a completely different alignment.

But I have a feeling that Russia is still going to finish this vulgar “operetta” with Ukraine. By launching Nord Stream 2, it will secure Europe in these matters, tying it to itself. And perhaps now will be the best time for a peace enforcement operation, as was done with Georgia in 2008.

You just need to wait for a large-scale provocation from Ukraine – sorry, for the cynicism.

“SP”: – Perhaps the go-ahead for such a provocation will be given by the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, who arrived in Kiev, who promised to protect Ukraine from “Russian aggression”. Otherwise, why is this visit necessary?

– I do not think that the Americans will be so clearly fired as the instigators of war in the center of Europe. Still, Ukraine is the center of Europe, geographically.

Rather, this visit was made to support the “political pants” of Vladimir Zelensky. Because on October 18, an emergency was declared in five regions of Ukraine due to the impossibility of heating public premises – schools, hospitals … etc. This winter has not begun yet.

And there is no hope that tomorrow they will have coal, gas and money for the purchase of energy resources.

Actually, the example of Georgia showed well how far the American allies are ready to go in the protection of their vassals. Not how much.

“SP”: – Recently, Dmitry Peskov, in an interview with French journalists, said that if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia can resort to “active measures” to ensure its own security. What did he mean, and why did we not apply these measures before?

– Apparently, there was not such a threatening reason, so they did not use it. But Ukraine’s entry into NATO will be a worthy reason to enter Kiev. And to end the fate of the state of Ukraine by dividing its territory between all interested parties – Romania, Poland, Hungary. By the way, they will only be happy about it. Well, and Russia, of course.

“SP”: – Yes, but so far the Ukrainian formations are shelling Donbass almost every day. And civilians suffer …

– Unfortunately, this is a regular mode – sorry, once again, for the cynicism. An abnormal regime is when the shells begin to arrive at Pushkin Boulevard in the very center of Donetsk. Or to the center of Lugansk.

They continue to hit the outskirts, the villages adjacent to the gray zone. And in general, directly to the front line.

Of course, sometime this must end.

“SP”: – Previously, the command of the People’s Militia of the LPNR gave instructions not to shoot back. And now?

– To be honest, the military command of the republics does not inform journalists about this. But I think the “answers” are happening. Because this is, first of all, a question of the morale of their own army, which is sitting, beaten, in trenches under artillery fire.

Well, how long will the army survive in such a regime?

Therefore, I am more than sure, there are, of course, “answers”. Only we don’t know about it yet.

* A terrorist organization banned in Russia

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