Sep 14, 2020
0 0

Devaluation hit the budget deficit

Devaluation hit the budget deficit

Rosstat reported that since the beginning of 2020, food prices in the Russian Federation have risen by 5%.

This is not yet a sensation, most citizens know that the real rise in food prices is much higher than the Rosstat data. The revelation is in the public admission by official statistics that food prices in the EU countries have risen by only 1.6%!

Here is a reason to think: why such a difference?

The coronavirus was the same everywhere, businesses were also closing and workers were in quarantine, but why, then, is their price situation much better? Because they were distributing “helicopter money” to the population to support households and demand?

But then, if we proceed from the logic of the Russian authorities, prices in Europe should have overtaken ours. It turns out that we are lying in the Ministry of Finance that the distribution of "unearned" rubles will accelerate inflation ...

Are they lying from greed and (or?) From illiteracy? No, the reason must be sought elsewhere. For a number of experts, it is not a secret.

“Russia has a much higher share of imported food products, as well as raw materials and equipment for their production,” says Mark Goikhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade. - The euro has risen in price against the ruble by 30% in seven months, the dollar - by 21%. This could not but affect the prices of products. "

And even though imports of food products in the Russian Federation in the first half of 2020 decreased by 14.1%, the devaluation of the ruble turned out to be much steeper and overlapped the effect of the growth in the volume of domestic food on the Russian market.

As a result, the key issue is the reasons for the devaluation.

“The main reason is the policy of free floating of the ruble exchange rate pursued by the Central Bank ... With the fall in oil prices, we see that the countries where the free floating of the national currency rate - Russia, Norway, Brazil - are leading in terms of the depth of devaluation, - says academician Sergei Glazyev ... “Countries that remain in control of the exchange rate feel stable despite the decline in oil prices.”

That is, the more rubles the petrodollar costs, the more of these cheap decorative rubles will go to the budget. And the government will be able to report on its implementation.

“The authorities are not even trying to support the ruble with foreign exchange reserves,” notes Yakov Mirkin, department head at IMEMO RAN. - The federal budget revenue from the weakening of the ruble amounted to 2.2 trillion rubles in January-July. Without this there is no way - the exchange rate difference more than covers the accumulated budget deficit of 1.5 trillion rubles.

In short, thanks to the devaluation, the government draws a deficit-free budget. And the population is blamed on the next rise in food prices, which, according to experts from the PRUE. G.V. Plekhanov, by the spring it can jump by 30%!

Alexey Vorobyov.


Article Categories:

Leave a Reply