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Nov 6, 2021
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Crimea, Donbass, Transnistria or Belarus – who will Ukraine attack?

Crimea, Donbass, Transnistria or Belarus - who will Ukraine attack?

Photo: AP / TASS

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to defeat the Russian army in the event of a full-scale war. Russia will not even have to conduct a ground offensive operation – everything can be decided in a matter of hours. This statement was made by the former commander of the airborne assault forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mikhail Zabrodsky

In his opinion, Russia, if necessary, will be able to cover the entire territory of Ukraine with missiles, since the use of air forces does not need a long deployment. To do this, it is enough to place the necessary operational-tactical missiles in Crimea, and the issue with the Ukrainian troops will be quickly resolved.

However, many Ukrainian politicians continue to convince the population that they can withstand …

– I partially agree with Zabrodsky, – says military political scientist, associate professor of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Alexander Perendzhiev

– But I draw your attention to the fact that we separate two concepts: defeat and capture. Since the latter still requires the presence of any armed units in the occupied territory. And in the defeat, the main thing is to destroy the enemy’s manpower, his equipment and, especially importantly, command and communications posts. I believe that in the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian army will direct its efforts precisely at the destruction of these important elements of the military component of the “independent”.

“SP”: And with what can it all start? Crimea? Donbass? What can be the reason?

– The reason may be open aggression by Ukraine by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with NATO, against the Republic of Belarus. Official Minsk has long considered this scenario as real and is preparing for it together with official Moscow.

“SP”: Can anyone intervene in this conflict? Here is Zelensky’s adviser Arestovich says that Kiev, together with foreign partners, has developed plans for defense against Russia in case a full-scale conflict breaks out. Seriously? Or a bluff?

– In this case, Arestovich is talking about the plan when Russia, with the help of the introduction of its troops, intends to seize the territory of Ukraine, or any part of it.

The fact is that these plans for the defense of the “square” provide for the presence of foreign servicemen in command posts, and not in the “field”. They also provide for the delivery of air strikes by NATO units, including the United States, against the Russian military on the territory of Ukraine. However, the participation of the military personnel of the North Atlantic Alliance is limited to this. In a “contact” battle with the Russian military, their participation is not provided. Only the Armed Forces, National Battalions and volunteer units.

“SP”: Attacking the Russian military on the territory of Ukraine? Will the US bomb Russian troops, even if not on Russian territory? And NATO? Who there wants to harness for Ukraine, to which no one owes anything?

– Ukraine is a NATO partner country with enhanced capabilities. Therefore, it is impossible not to take into account the possibility of NATO’s participation in the war for Ukraine with the help of means of a “contactless” war. Here I am just talking about the possible repulsion of the aggression on the part of Ukraine against the Republic of Belarus. And such a scenario is quite possible. And it is possible that NATO will call its military personnel employees of private companies.

“SP”: Let’s get back to the Donbass scenario. TOHow can the “coercion of Kiev to peace” develop? Or will it be, like in Georgia, just kicked out of the territory of Donbass and that’s it?

– I believe that Russia will not allow to fully launch an aggression against Donbass, just with the help of its own aerospace forces, missile forces and artillery. At the same time, it is quite possible that, after repelling the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the armed units of the DPR and LPR will go on the offensive in order to completely liberate the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

“SP”: – Recently, statements about a war with Russia have been increasingly heard in the Ukrainian information space. O what does it say? Is society being prepared for war?

– The presence of anti-Russian military information hysteria prepares the population of Ukraine for unleashing a war against Russia. In some ways, this is reminiscent of the situation when the population of Germany was preparing to fight against the USSR. The ideology is also very similar. Now in “Nezalezhnaya” all government decisions are made in accordance with the principles of Nazism and Bandrovism. Not all Ukrainian politicians and ordinary citizens find approval of these principles. Therefore, all these so-called scenarios of a war with Russia just speak of an intensification of the political crisis inside Ukraine and the intention of its power structures to fight with its own population, but under the guise of a war with official Moscow. Actually, what is happening with respect to Donbass.

– The question is not how quickly Russia will manage to inflict a military defeat on Ukraine, but in its post-war arrangement, – I am convinced historian, publicist, permanent expert of the Izborsk club Alexander Dmitrievsky

“A completely different world will await us there, completely different from the one we imagine: completely disintegrated and plundered by the“ civilized ”West, where the winners will receive nothing but a portfolio of bills as a trophy. A world where the most severe timelessness will reign, with a complete loss of ideals and hopeless decline in all spheres of life.

– As for the speed of the defeat of Ukraine, let’s not forget that a weaker enemy in history has more than once successfully opposed a stronger one. Suffice it to recall the “Miracle over the Vistula” in 1920, when a much weaker Poland very competently took advantage of the mistakes of the Red Army and inflicted a crushing defeat on it.

Do not forget the lessons of the Finnish campaign of the winter of 1939-40, when the breakthrough of the line Mannerheim cost a lot for us. But the main thing is that in both cases a politically erroneous bet was made that the local proletariat would be loyal to us, but everything turned out to be exactly the opposite.

Regarding Ukraine: its army is completely incomparable with the Russian one in terms of power, however, it has experience in military operations and a sufficient number of highly mobilized mobilization reserves from among radical nationalists.

“SP”: Is Zelensky ready for war? His time is coming to an end, perhaps he wants to leave a trace in history …

– In the minds of the Ukrainian leadership, the thesis about a “small victorious war” is very popular, which will become a safety valve for an overheated boiler of accumulated socio-economic contradictions. And she does not have to be victorious: a defeat, which can be declared someone’s “zrada”, can be attributed to much more troubles. But the most important thing is that all these troubles will be quite understandable.

The architects of the renaissance of Nazism in Ukraine initially laid down a catastrophic scenario in their project, the main part of which will be launched after the collapse of the Bandera regime. After all, it is vitally important for the West to make the anti-fascist forces extreme in this situation – in order to stir up discontent and incite people to all kinds of unrest of an openly revanchist character through their agents of influence left on the post-Ukrainian territory.

Briefly about these “surprises”. The first thing you will have to face is the issue of international recognition of the new government. The West has repeatedly stated that any more or less pro-Western regime in Kiev will not receive legitimacy in its eyes. In other words – the classic Transnistrian scenario, only here we have the second largest state in Europe.

The next on the agenda will be the issue of Ukraine’s international financial obligations: external debt is tied to a sovereign territory, not to the regime.

In the 1920s, the Soviet Union had to admit the external debts of the tsarist government for diplomatic recognition. And here the legacy portfolio with bills and mortgages will be a very good trump card in the hands of the owners of the defeated Banderaites. And this portfolio is very significant and quite sufficient to impose the Salvadoran scenario: in this country, the civil war ended with the victory of the patriotic and anti-globalist Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, but the entire economy remained completely under US control. As a result, El Salvador, according to quite understandable where the demand sounded, completely abandoned the extraction of minerals on its territory and replaced its own currency with the US dollar.

At the grassroots level, they will have to face a total collapse of infrastructure, first of all, such critical sectors for the modern economy as the banking sector, energy and telecommunications: for Ukraine, as a major supplier of guest workers, such troubles can become a direct reason for a social explosion on the liberated from Bandera territories.

Regarding the picture of these phenomena, it is enough to recall the exodus of Ukrainian banks from the DPR and LPR in 2014: it took about six months to create their own financial institutions with a very modest range of services, almost completely focused on meeting priority requests.

It is also worth remembering the “telephone blackout” of 2018 in the DPR, when Vodafone, the last Ukrainian mobile operator that remained in the republics, did not work for almost four months. And it is good that the DPR already had its own mobile operator Phoenix, which urgently had to increase its capacity.

In general terms, preparations for the coming post-Ukrainian catastrophe are already nearing completion. De-industrialization is advancing at an accelerated pace: the liquidation of industry will make several million workers unnecessary.

Pogroms of branches of Russian banks will undermine the financial system. The predatory conditions for agricultural producers will accelerate the transfer of control over the agricultural sector into the hands of multinational companies. The consequence of this will be the degradation of the countryside and the strengthening of the role of the subsistence economy. A huge number of youth, passed through the meat grinder of war, is a base for future gangster groups, armed with “guns” settling on their hands from the combat zone. And all this “good” will go to the winner.

We saw something similar in 1945: after the defeat Hitler in the history of Germany began a period that is called “Stunde zero” – “Zero hour”. The post-Soviet space also went through a similar scrapping of the system in the “dashing 90s”: such was the payback for the defeat in the Cold War.

“SP”: Where can a war start? In Crimea or Donbass?

– It is possible that in Transnistria: in the Crimea, the adventure will turn out to be waving his fists after the battle, and in Donbass one can get by with the scorching breath of the “northern wind”. But Transnistria – it borders only with Ukraine and Moldova, and there the Russian army in any case will have to break through to help the peacekeepers through Ukrainian territory.

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