The fourth wave of covid, without waiting for the end of the third, threatens to turn into a tsunami in Russia. The situation is developing very rapidly. Until a couple of weeks ago, she seemed relatively calm. But by the beginning of October, it began to deteriorate sharply. In all regions, there was an increase in the number of cases, including severe ones. As of Monday, October 5, plus 25,781 new infections (7 million 612 thousand 317 since the beginning of the epidemic). And more and more dead: every day more than eight hundred people (210 thousand 801 for all the time).
This is according to official figures. Agreed, it is believed, with the Kremlin. There are, however, other statistics as well. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeltung (Obshchaya Gazeta), one of the leading German publications and the most widespread outside Germany, writes about her:
“The situation with the coronavirus in Russia is currently a cause for concern,” says the author of her publication. – The death toll reported by the official headquarters for the fight against the virus is questionable. Things are likely much worse. These numbers (official – Auth.) reflect only deaths from covid, if they are reflected at all: for several weeks in the summer, when the “delta” variant of the virus raged in the Russian Federation, the death rate strangely remained constant – a little less than 800 people. coronavirus is much higher, but they are published with a week’s delay, and there are also doubts about them.
Colleagues from the French edition “Le Monde” (“Peace”) echo to the neighbors from Germany: “The figures provided by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Service of Rospotrebnadzor and used by the World Health Organization for global comparisons are questionable. The reality is undoubtedly far beyond these figures: in the same July, the observed excess mortality in the Russian Federation, compared to July 2019, reached 64,000 people. The calculation is carried out in accordance with a minimalist calculation methodology and is systematically revised upwards by another official source – the statistical service Rosstat. “
The fact that a certain “game with numbers” is possible so as “not to frighten the population” has been said more than once over the past one and a half years. The indicators diverged too much. The doctors are alone. Health officials are different. Specialists in modern technologies, creating mathematical models of the spread of the virus, have the third. In particular, the head of the Center for National Technological Initiatives of the St. Petersburg Polytechnic University Alexey Borovkov back in July, he warned of a possible heavy fourth wave of covid. Which, according to him, could not but be, given the government’s silence on the true state of affairs with the virus, the approaching (at that time) elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, the insignificance of the restrictions imposed in the country and their ignorance by the population skeptical about vaccination.
Similar models were presented in both our capitals by other independent analysts. It seems that they were not heard – neither the authorities, nor ordinary citizens.
I remember that last winter, when vaccination with the first domestic (and the first in the world!) Sputnik V vaccine was launched in Russia, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin talked about the need to vaccinate at least 60-65% of Russians by the summer of 2021 – this is the only way, they say, we can stop the epidemic. “We started mass vaccination on January 18 this year, the plans are big here. The industry is working even ahead of schedule in terms of the number of manufactured drugs, – said Vladimir Vladimirovich. – During the vaccination campaign against influenza, about 70 million Russians were vaccinated, and we must reach approximately the same figures on the issue of combating coronavirus infection. Somewhere by the beginning of the second half of the year, maybe by the end of summer, we should get the 60-70% we need. “
What do we have by the beginning of October? Only 48735780 people were vaccinated with at least one component of the vaccine. (33.3% of the population). Fully – 42,761,670 people. (29.3% of the population).
– Yes, all these vaccinations are nonsense. In addition, they are dangerous for those who have chronic diseases – categorically the acquaintance of your correspondent Lyudmila X… She is a pensioner and lives with her husband outside the city. He comes to town once or twice a month to “visit the apartment.” – I have a daughter, a nurse, she told me that in the West our “Sputnik V” is considered unreliable. He was still not recognized there. And she also explained what complications are possible from vaccination. And I have varicose veins. I don’t want to risk it.
“SP”: – And the “chronicles” are vaccinated. You just need to undergo an additional examination. And a kindred nurse, Lyudmila Evgenievna, is not an argument! A competent specialist is needed here.
– I already had covid disease last fall. There were no serious consequences. The antibodies are probably still there. And if necessary, my daughter will get me the necessary certificate.
Like this elderly woman, many Russians “feed on” rumors and non-professional advice. Both the elderly and the young. The former, for the most part, at least do not neglect masks. The second and from vaccinations are dismissed, and personal protective equipment is ignored, and in public places they usually huddle close to those standing. If you make a remark, they will get nasty.
Told my story friend Oksana Godzhik, the head of one of the city clinics. She sighed in response: “There are, unfortunately, many such people among Petersburgers, and probably not only among them. We can’t do anything with them, because vaccination is voluntary ”.
I went to Oksana Mikhailovna to find out why I still (early September) had not received a certificate of vaccination given at the beginning of June to Gosuslugi. I have a vacation, I have to leave, but there is no document that is important for the present life. It turned out that it was not the polyclinic that was “slowing down”, but “the system is such with certificates that we ourselves cannot understand.” Also, in general, not in favor of vaccination.
I went on vacation to Crimea – more than 40 hours in a reserved seat carriage of a long-distance train. The group with which I went to the South Coast did not cause fear, all were vaccinated. But the rest of the passengers … A woman without a mask on the “side” near our compartment at first quietly coughed. Closer to Moscow, already at night, she woke up the whole carriage with prolonged attacks, to which, judging by the characteristic sounds, also a runny nose was added. Our leader turned to the guide: “Take action!” He spread his arms: “What can I do? Only offer a mask if it doesn’t have one. ” Closer to Rostov-on-Don, the number of coughing, sneezing, and constantly blowing their nose increased to three. Two more complained of weakness and chills. These two left in Voronezh – either they were going there, or they needed medical assistance. The medic did not appear in our carriage. Like the head of the train …
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of similar cases – with a reluctance to get vaccinated, a fake vaccination certificate, ignorance of sanitary requirements – all over Russia. On the southern coast of Crimea, by the way, masks are generally “in the enclosure”. In Alupka, at the entrance to the Vorontsov Palace, they demanded to show it, they let it go on presentation, and in the halls, where group after group is a close crowd, as you wish. In Gurzuf, at the Chaika Hotel, as well as in cafes and museums, they did not even ask about her.
Does the government know about such facts? Doesn’t even know? Well, yes, in the reserved seat, as well as in trains in general, our ministers do not travel. More and more by airplanes in the VIP class fenced off from the “mass”. What 60-70% of the vaccinated people needed to defeat the virus in a given country can we talk about here?
– The fact that many Russians ignore the calls of doctors and government officials to be vaccinated is due not so much to mistakes in organizing the procedure itself on the ground, but to low motivation of citizens. And also with insufficient active propaganda and agitation of vaccination, its really real benefits in the fight against the epidemic, – said “SP” Academician of the RAMS. Vitaly Zverev, world renowned virologist, head Department of Sechenov university.
“SP”: – In some regions of the Russian Federation, they tried to lure people into vaccination with gifts in the form of tickets to the theater, on excursions – do you mean that?
– No, there is only one motivation in my understanding – health. Many fellow citizens aged 20 to 35 do not think about health at all. Believing, apparently, that they will always be young and strong. Give them preferences! Let’s say they find an interesting job for themselves, provided that they get vaccinated – they go to do it. But have managers taken care of this at all enterprises, organizations and institutions? Unfortunately no.
“SP”: – It is high time to make vaccination mandatory. Otherwise, we will wait for more than one year until the number of immuno-protected people necessary for safety in front of the covid is typed.
“You can’t take our Russian man by order. Any forceful decision causes a backlash in him. There are many examples of this in Russian history. No, it is necessary to explain – persistently and intelligibly. In particular, the fact that the non-recognition of RF vaccines in the West is pure business, a struggle for sales markets. That each country that has its own vaccine will vaccinate its citizens only for them. That the World Health Organization, over and over again postponing the recognition of Sputnik V, is trying to maneuver between the West and the East, not wanting to quarrel with anyone. Although it would be high time for her to come to an agreement with all countries. Still, we are talking about a serious infection that has been walking around the world for the second year and taking away thousands of lives every day in different countries.
“SP”: – High mortality now in Russia. Higher than last year, when experts almost blindly, figuratively speaking, groped for the weak sides of the virus in order to find an antidote.
– The virus is changing, mutating. More and more new methods and means of treatment are required. Here we return to the beginning of our dialogue – you need to be vaccinated! Then it will be easier to cope with the infection. Without waiting for the next wave.