Back on September 1, Svobodnaya Pressa, in the article “Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing to take revenge for the defeat in the south with an attack in northern Ukraine,” suggested that as soon as the so-called counter-offensive on Kherson bogged down, the Ukrainians would strike elsewhere. The Kharkov direction was seen as the most probable.
According to local publics, the concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov, and in the city itself, just went off scale. In addition, according to the independent commander-in-chief, the wooded area makes it possible to use to the fullest the factor of the advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in manpower, while due to the “greenery” Russian artillery and aviation will no longer be able to provide powerful support to the infantry of the RF Armed Forces, as was the case in the Kherson region .
And yet then, a week ago, it seemed unlikely. There was a feeling that the main forces of the Ukrainian army were concentrated in the south. Say, it is here that the fate of the military campaign of 2022 is being decided, since in a month or two it will begin to rain and cold, after which the fighting will slow down until spring.
However, the course of the “Battle for Kherson” showed that the General Staff threw no more than 20 thousand bayonets into the “Andreev meat grinder”, and even less in other secondary areas of active battles. Around September 4, the flow of Ukrainian reserves to the Bereznegovatoe station began to decrease, through which the main flow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine went to Andreevka.
Then the public “Odessa Fraer” reported that in the event of the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Nikolaev direction, they sent the Odessa Terodefense, thereby significantly weakening the garrison of the main port city of Nenko. All this gave reason to assume that in fact there are not so many Ukrainian troops here.
And now, according to the report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation as of September 7, 2022, “during the day in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction, due to the large losses incurred in manpower and equipment, no offensive operations were carried out by the Ukrainian troops. The Russian Aerospace Forces, missile forces and artillery continued to carry out high-precision strikes against units and reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction.”
It seems that the Kyiv regime in the south took at least a pause and concentrated on the northern front, where the attack on Balakleya began. But what is curious: the information coming from there has a very similar informational background, which was observed in the first days of the Kherson offensive of the Ukrainians.
Who forgot, then the telegram channels, which have their own sources in the RF Armed Forces, began to anxiously report on the successes of the Ukrainian troops. In particular, the news seemed shocking: “The Armed Forces of Ukraine nevertheless expanded the zone of control at Sukhoi Headquarters and, having occupied Kostromka, reached the southwestern outskirts of the village of Bruskinskoye, through which the group in Davydov Brod is supplied.”
A number of Russian experts, including authoritative ones, urged to prepare for the worst – at least, to level the front. One could also read about the lack of strikes on the columns of the Independence defenders marching along the main roads, while the Ukrainians used aviation (although it was previously stated that the Russian Federation has absolute air supremacy). It is possible that for the first time since February 24, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had an advantage in a salvo, albeit on a single sector of the front.
Only by the end of the second day of the Bandera offensive in the Nikolaev direction, encouraging news began to appear that the situation was not as bad as the “all-weeders” were suggesting.
In particular, they began to actively post a comment in RuNet: “A breakthrough was not allowed to Kherson, the front as a whole survived. Front-line soldiers report signs of the use by the Ukrainian military of mentally active substances that suppress fear and pain. Previously, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allowed irretrievable losses in this operation up to 30% of the personnel.
On September 7, the WarGonzo project reported something similar about the Kharkiv offensive: “The special forces of the Russian Guard have been heroically holding the defense of Balakliya for the second day already, despite the fact that the enemy threw superior forces into the counteroffensive. The guys give an adequate fire rebuff and still get in touch. No one is going to retreat – despite the tough rubilovo. Along the perimeter of the city in the “gray zone” there are active shooting battles. In the settlement itself – and even on its outskirts, according to our data – the enemy failed to gain a foothold.
Similar information came out of Nenko: independent truth-tellers are confident that NATO-trained brigades of the Ukrainian army, including groups of the Special Operations Forces that replaced the defense forces, will be able to achieve insignificant successes, and with heavy losses.
On Zhovto-Blakit forums, they competently scribble that the defenders of Independence, with strikes on Volkhov Yar and Savintsy, technically can (or even have already been able to) cut two supply routes for the Russian group located in Balakleya, which “bulges out” in Nenko. Nevertheless, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to keep the city in the operational environment for a long time. Ukrainian truth-tellers believe that “this is from that opera about the famous pole on the border, which was installed by the brave and immediately signed up for the 200th.
In short, again cunning plans Zelensky as well as Zaluzhny “meanly” violated our fighters. “If not for two detachments [российских] SOBR in Balakliya, probably, the operation would have been completed by now, ”insiders from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to admit.
According to them, “there is no talk of any encirclement of the entire Izyum group. Even if 9,000 people and 200 tanks are involved in the operation, this is simply not enough for such an environment. We are talking about an attempt to encircle Balakleya, and nothing more. Moreover, it will be difficult to do this, given the shallow depth of the environment, which is shot through.”
Bloomberg published a piece about the upcoming offensive, according to which Kyiv has limited forces, nevertheless “Ukraine must show enough progress on the battlefield to withstand the risk of fatigue among its American and European allies, as they face growing public pressure over economic consequences of the war.
In other words, the Ze-team will, in any case, try to arrange psychic attacks on our troops on an ongoing basis in order to keep the West in good shape. How not to recall here the “thousand cuts” tactics announced by the adviser to the head of the presidential office [Украины] Podolyakafter the collapse of the Kherson offensive. According to him, “they [русские] must move their reserves in panic along the entire front line. Let them think about where Ukraine will attack today.”
Actually, Zelensky and Zaluzhny have little choice. It is no secret that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated all their strategic reserves in three directions: Kherson, Kharkov and Energodar. Moreover, the Ze-team does not even hide the fact that the capture of the ZNPP is a fixed idea for it, if only because it will be possible to blackmail the population of the southeast, including the DPR and Zaporozhye, with a second Chernobyl.
In particular, this is stated on the telegram channel “Reports of the militia of Novorossiya ZOV”: “The enemy is preparing another strike, I suspect that in the Zaporozhye direction. Given the accumulation of manpower and armor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I am inclined to try to break through our defenses to the west of Vugledar. Then they will try to hit with a trident in three directions at once – on Volnovakha, Melitopol and already from the east side on Energodar, with the opening of the petal and access to operational space.