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Oct 23, 2021
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Biden may leave before the deadline – who instead of him?

Confidence in the President of the United States is falling rapidly

According to the latest data, the policy of the head of the White House is approved by only 37% of American voters.

Analysts more and more often write that the president has found himself in a systemic “trap”, from which there is no way out. His voluntary resignation due to lack of strength and health is not excluded. It seems to many that the president himself is already burdened by the unbearable burden that has been placed on him.

The US flight from Afghanistan greatly influenced the decline in Biden’s popularity. However, the Americans are more worried about not even this, but the appearance on their territory of tens of thousands of Afghan refugees, whom they polls consider to be hidden alqaidists *. After all, NATO allies refuse to accept large numbers of Afghans. The “Trump wall” is bursting at the seams on the border with Mexico, from where the immigration flow has increased (up to 200 thousand per month). The authorities are also dissatisfied with the lame economy and the inability to cope with the “pandemic”. It is not possible to drown out the corruption scandals around the president’s son, Hunter …

Joe and Hunter Biden

Joe and Hunter Biden

A significant part of the American media, which previously supported Biden in his confrontation with Trump, is disappointed. New york post, for example, insistently demands himself a Pulitzer Prize for exposing Hunter Biden. The American Spectator calls Biden “a weak-minded, gray-haired, loser president, worse than the coronavirus.” American thinker lists noticed im having Biden “Alzheimer’s symptoms.”

And the American withdrawal from Iraq and Syria looms ahead. An agreement on this was reached with Baghdad at the beginning of the year. Washington would not mind to postpone the withdrawal or to keep some part of its forces there, but the nationalist-minded religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who won the Iraqi parliamentary elections on October 10, as well as his possible partners in the government coalition, demand strict compliance by the White House with the existing agreement … After all, Baghdad is not threatened by the fate of Kabul, it is able to smash the scattered detachments of the IS group banned in Russia * on its own. But in this case, the proto-state Kurdish formations in Iraq and Syria, created with American support, can collapse. That is, the next victim of the Americans, most likely, will be the Kurds. The appearance in the United States of tens of thousands of these new refugees will deal an additional blow to Biden’s reputation.

Muqtada al-Sadr

Muqtada al-Sadr

The Democrats’ plight is compounded by the midterm congressional elections due on November 8, 2022. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. Now the Democrats hold control over the Congress, but in the House of Representatives their majority is small (8 people), and in the Senate the seats are divided equally between the two parties. It is believed that the upper house of Congress is still behind the Democrats, since the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, who heads the Senate, is added to this party.

If these trends continue, the likelihood that the midterm elections will result in Republicans receiving a majority in both houses and their Speaker of the House of Representatives is quite high. Continuing to travel around the country and collect large rallies, D. Trump does not spare his forces for this, thus taking revenge for the injustices committed against him, in his opinion.

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris

If Biden leaves after November 2022, when Kamala Harris takes over, a situation may arise in which the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives will take her previous place. In accordance with the constitutional order of succession of the presidency, he is the third in this row (the fourth is the Secretary of State).

Something similar has already happened in American history. In 1973, Republican Gerald Ford was co-opted as vice president by President Nixon from his seat in the House of Representatives to replace the thief and resigned Spiro Agnew. And in 1974, Ford took over Nixon’s place after he left because of the Watergate affair. True, then everything was happening in the republican circle, and after a couple of months, the “elephants” after the re-election lost their majority in the House of Representatives, but Ford had already become president.

Gerald Ford

Gerald Ford

In America, he is often called the “worst” White House head ever. But this rather refers to the appointment mechanism that the American constitution is to blame. In fact, Ford rehabilitated the monstrous internal crisis after Watergate, ended the Vietnam War, and quite confidently followed the path of detente with the USSR. Democrat Jimmy Carter, who replaced him, was much weaker.

J. Ford and L. Brezhnev

J. Ford and L. Brezhnev

The temptation to repeat the “Ford stratagem” this time in the performance of the Democrats is great, and until November 2022, when a Republican may become the Speaker of the House of Representatives. By becoming vice president in the event of Biden’s departure and having Congress behind him, this Republican politician will be able to paralyze a Democratic president, and even such as Harris. Nominated mainly not according to merit, but for the successful passage of the electoral cycle (a woman, and even of Afro-Asian origin), she did not show any ability to govern the state. To say that K. Harris “lends his shoulder” to Biden would be a big stretch. In all difficult and doubtful situations, the vice president prefers to disappear somewhere and not take any responsibility. She needs a strong “second person”.

So far, only Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can claim this role. The woman is peculiar and ambitious, but hardly capable of helping K. Harris in public administration, including because of her advanced years (81 years old, she is older than Biden). A bunch of two women could lead America to more chaos and deprive Democrats of any chance in the 2024 presidential election.

Nancy Palosi

Nancy Palosi

Democrats would be preferable to find someone else to replace Pelosi as soon as possible. But replacing her with someone more suitable before the midterm congressional elections is not easy. Leaving the post to be taken by someone else is not at all in the nature of Nancy. The Democrats have a classic zugzwang.

Republicans are satisfied with the current situation. At the same time, they do not really want to nominate Donald Trump for a second term in 2024, who can then repeat the likely fate of Biden. They are using its potential with an eye to the 2022 congressional elections. And if they manage to get their speaker of the House of Representatives in Congress, who will then become vice president, then in 2024 he will lead the Republican presidential campaign. This could elegantly get rid of Trump.

The highest chances of being nominated by Republicans after a possible electoral victory for the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives, and then Vice President of the leader of the Republican minority in this House, Kevin McCarthy. He was a consistent supporter of Trump and disputed the outcome of Joe Biden’s election. McCarthy, like Biden, has Irish roots. A California native, McCarthy has the potential to undermine decades of Democratic dominance in this key state. Trump may not mind him either. The Californian is quite capable of pushing K. Harris out of power.

Kevin McCarthy (56 years old)

Kevin McCarthy (56 years old)

However, the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives, if the Republican Party wins in the by-election, may also be desired by the chairman of its national committee, that is, the formal current leader Ronna Romney McDaniel from another important state – Texas.

Ronna Romney McDaniel (48)

Ronna Romney McDaniel (48)

She is the niece of the famous politician who has run for president more than once, Mitt Romney (McDaniel is married). She will definitely “bite all the bones” of Kamala Harris.

Cover photo: REUTERS / Carlos Barria

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