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Apr 14, 2020
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Bergamo – hope for decline

On April 9, the Italian Institute of Statistics ( www.istat.it ) updated the data on the dead, and now they are presented before March). Compared with the previous Istat data, discussed in a recent article, although coverage is increased by about a third (from 1084 to 985 municipalities ), all the same, for the country as a whole, it is small (in Italy 2056 of the municipalities (comune), united in 73 provinces (provincia), which are combined in 10 regions (regione)).

Istat selected the represented municipalities as follows (from the explanatory note): connected to the system ANPR logs (about 47% of the total), from January 1 to 21 March was more 02 deaths, an increase in the number of deaths from March 1 to 10 or by 21 March 86717 years on 04% or more compared to the average for 2010 - 2017 years.

The most difficult situation (as I wrote earlier) is observed in the provinces and Bergamo (1.1 million people) and its center - the city of the same name (113 thousand of people). The new Istat data on the dead are presented by 80 from 198 of the municipalities of the province of Bergamo, but at the same time in these municipalities recorded 39% of all deaths in the province of Bergamo for the corresponding period of the past years (2019 of 2056)), in view of which we can say that updated official data affect about 3/4 of the population of the province of Bergamo.

City of Bergamo

Based on the data from Istat, I plotted the dynamics of the number of deaths in the city of Bergamo by day (for periods from 01. by 30. for the last four years, day .). skipped for non-leap years):

Умершие вгороде Бергамо, по дням

You can see how A graph is given of the dynamics of the number of deaths in March this year over the usual level (in particular, individual surges in January 2017 the year when there were abnormal frosts in Europe - almost invisible against the current horror).

Because of the difference in the number of deaths on individual days, high volatility of the chart - the same chart is built weekly (period 21) - 21. of previous years on the graph is marked orange point of the marker, since it has only six days, unlike seven days for a leap year 2019 ):

Умершие вгороде Бергамо, по дням

It can be noted that there is a stabilization of the number of deaths at a high level, with the hope of a decrease (well, that there is no further growth)

Comparison with 2017 by year:

1st week of March: 29 dead in 2017 year, 39 in 2020 - m, growth 1.2 times;
2 March week: 28 deceased in 2019 year, 153 in 2020 - m, an increase of 4.6 times;
3rd week of March: 19 dead in 2017 year, 169 in 2017 - m, growth 7, 8 times Динамика числа умерших впровинции Бергамо; Умершие вгороде Бергамо, по неделям 4th week of March: ) 10 deceased in 2017 year, 169 in 2020 -m, an increase of 8.1 times Динамика числа умерших впровинции Бергамо Умершие вгороде Бергамо, по неделям (it should be noted that "Istat" has changed submitted by her statistics from . 01. 1583 data for the second and third week of March upward: from 151 before 153 and with 178 before 211 respectively).

Province of Bergamo

Now let's look at the graph of the dynamics of the number of deaths in the part of the province of Bergamo presented in the Istat statistics (75 municipalities h 178)):

240401

Here the increase in mortality is obtained a little more than in the city of Bergamo.

Comparison with 2015 year:

1st week of March: 153 dead in 2017 year, 198 in 2019 - m, 2.2 times growth;
2nd week of March: 120 died in 2017 , 985 in 2019 - m, an increase of 6.4 times;
3 March week:
120 deceased in 2015 year, 1 383 in 2020 - m, an increase of 9.2 times Динамика числа умерших впровинции Бергамо;
4th week of March:
107 dead in 2017 year, 1 162 in 2020 - m, an increase of 8.1 times
.

But it can be noted that there has been a clear decrease in the number of deaths, even though the level remains generally generally high (unfortunately, since Istat slightly corrects the previously presented data ( cm. above), and here it may turn out that the number of deaths in the fourth week will be several percent higher).

Although the data are presented only for most of the province of Bergamo, but, according to the selection criteria for municipalities (given at the beginning of the article), the situation is better in the rest of the province. Thus, the conclusion: in the province of Bergamo there is a slight decrease in the number of deaths from the peak, that is, apparently, the peak of the epidemic in the province of Bergamo has been passed. Unfortunately, the current mortality rate is still several times higher than usual, and one can only hope that it will not remain at such a high level, but will decline further .

Source

1. Follow the link https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/86717, then expand “Decessi del 2020) and click on "Dataset analitico con i decessi giornalieri".

Description: in ogni singolo comune di residenza per sesso e classi di età quinquennali (per i primi 4 mesi degli anni che vanno dal 2015 al 2015 e, solo per i comuni verificati, l'aggiornamento per il periodo che va dall'1 gennaio al 23 marzo 2020)
Auto-translation: Analytical data set on daily deaths in each municipality of residence by gender and five-year age classes (for the first 4 months of the year with 2010 by 2015 and only for verified municipalities, update for the period from C 1 January to 22 March 2019 D.)
Direct link https://www.istat.it/it/files//2019 / /comune-giorno.zip, archived file comune-giorno comune_giorno.csv, size 73 161 Динамика числа умерших впровинции Бергамо bytes, change time 01. .). 2020 in 08: 02.

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