Will the people of Belarus become objects and victims of manipulators from outside? Will he escape the treacherous pitfalls of history?
On March 25, on the anniversary of the proclamation in 1918 of the Belarusian People’s Republic (BNR), which was quickly replaced by the Soviet system, the country is scheduled to restart the mass protests agreed with the West on the basis of all the organizational work done for this during the winter.
March of Students, Minsk, September 1, 2020
The main thing in the “capture” of Belarus, the developers of the “new Belarusian strategy” from the Atlantic Council ***, see the organization of mass protests against the current government, but on a new, much more elaborated and resource-provided base than until now.
So far, according to their estimates, only about $ 10 million has been allocated for the Belarusian protests in 2020. These funds have been spent and now the West needs to send much larger sums there. Only the US State Department, according to the recommendations, should allocate $ 200 million a year to the “civil society” of Belarus. Finding ways to quickly deliver American aid, transfer it to those who need it – “This is one of the biggest challenges for the Biden administration”, according to the report of the Atlantic Council. Digital cryptocurrencies such as bitcoins are recognized as the best way to do this. Is it because they are now rapidly growing in price, that it is necessary to throw them as much as possible into Belarus and Russia?
The Atlantic Council publishes information for its numerous state and commercial structures on how and to whom in Belarus the necessary funds should be directed in anticipation of the upcoming events. Among the desirable recipients are, in particular, about 20 creative and professional “solidarity” foundations from musicians, artists and athletes to doctors, political scientists and lawyers (“opinion leaders”). In 2021, all of these funds should ensure that the largely spontaneous protests of 2020 grow into a structured and well-organized mass movement modeled on the Polish Solidarity movement of the 1980s. The Atlantic Council notes that Navalny’s supporters are beginning to use the same tactics in Russia.
According to experts from the Atlantic Council, “Lukashenka and the Kremlin” have allegedly “lost the initiative”. The agenda is “determined by the opposition.”
It is proposed to significantly increase external propaganda pressure on Belarus. The US Congress is recommended to double the budget of the Belarusian service “Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty” **, which is controlled by the US Agency for Global Media (United States Agency for Global Media – USAGM)…
Collage “Radio Liberty / Free Europe”
The Atlantic Council’s assessments of the actions of the Belarusian opposition and the counter-actions of the official Minsk in terms of technology and efficiency are curious. The interest of a professional manipulator is felt. Thus, the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly held on February 11-12 is characterized by Atlanticists as a heavyweight “Neo-Soviet retro event”, which, in part, may have looked like this. Manipulators believe that “Political changes in authoritarian regimes can be achieved by a combination of internal and external games not only with the elites, but also on the streets”…
All-Belarusian People’s Assembly
The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly is opposed to “creative and innovative actions” in favor of the Belarusian opposition, which will be held within the framework of the “Day of Belarus” in various cities of America and Europe. Among them are the launch of a drone carrying a white-red-white flag in Kiev, lighting in the same colors of facades of buildings and clouds in Tallinn and Riga, carrying a giant flag from BCHB– symbols in the center of Gdansk. And here we must talk not about “creativity”, but about aggressive provocation: hanging in some state symbols used in the internal political struggle in another country is a direct interference in the affairs of this country and an attempt on its sovereignty. It looks especially cynical from Poland, hanging there BCHB-flag refers to the period of stay of Belarus under Polish domination and can be qualified as a manifestation of territorial claims.
The very massive and widespread distribution of white-red-white banners is far from accidental. At recent protest rallies in Moscow, for example, Ukrainian flags were not visible at all, although earlier they were in abundance, but the banners of the Belarusian opposition flashed here and there. The logic is simple. For many, what is happening in Ukraine looks repulsive, but it is not so with Belarus. They want to tie the Belarusian protesters with the Russian opposition, seeing the closeness between them.
The Atlantic Council openly discusses the “synergy of anti-government protests” in Russia and Belarus, pointing out that Russian youth from “Khabarovsk to Moscow” allegedly willingly adopts the symbols, methods and slogans of the protesters demonstrated on the streets of Belarusian cities, right up to “Alive Belarus!” … Say, “Simultaneous riots in both countries will seriously limit Russia’s ability to control the outcome of the crisis in Belarus“…
White-red-white flag at an opposition event in Moscow
The Atlantic Council sees the financial problems of Belarus as an important lever of pressure on Lukashenka to force him to leave his post. The republic needs to receive $ 6 billion from foreign financial institutions to cover the deficit in current payments and to service debt in 2021. The collective West is actually calling for a boycott of these funds. The report notes with indignation: “It is surprising that in June 2020 Belarus received $ 1.25 billion from the sale of Eurobonds on international financial markets.”… It is assumed that Moscow is the only one who can come to the aid of Minsk in this situation, but only by selling important Belarusian state assets to Russian companies. In this situation, the developers of the new strategy suggest that the United States abandon the previous practice of imposing sanctions on Belarusian enterprises, so as not to alienate the people, but to concentrate them entirely on those Russian companies and oligarchs that will try to enter the economy of Belarus. Among them are Russian state oil companies, Uralchem, Uralkali.
The Atlantic Council is expressing concern about Russian-Belarusian military cooperation in 2021, the planned volume of which is supposedly greater than in all previous years. The purpose of this activity, according to the council’s experts, is the “gradual annexation” of Belarus and the creation of a permanent Russian military base on its territory. Minsk is moving towards a military rapprochement with Moscow due to protests inspired by the West, which, they say, completely changes the overall security balance on the eastern flank of NATO. It seems that the conclusion suggests itself that it is unprofitable for the West to support the Belarusian opposition. However, contrary to logic, the conclusion is the opposite: since “This military activity is contrary to the interests of civil society and a democratic future” Russia and Belarus, protests should not be curtailed, but, on the contrary, should be stimulated.
A special role is assigned to the recently created conspiratorial organization in Poland. BYPOL, which supposedly consists of former officers of the army, special services and internal affairs bodies of Belarus. Its tasks include, first of all, reaching out to the current employees of these organizations in order to persuade them to side with the opposition, offer them to go abroad and “drain” information about the “crimes” of the regime. Through the efforts of BYPOL, over 30 security personnel have allegedly left Belarus. The main routes of departure run through Poland and Ukraine.
Presumably in March, before the start of a new wave of protests in Belarus, a NATO summit is to be held, at which the new US President Joe Biden and his administration will be presented to the alliance for the first time. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda expressed his conviction that this summit will “Very clearly defined priorities around the Belarusian issue and Russia’s behavior”…
The following months will be decisive in the fate of the people of Belarus. Will the people become an object and a victim of manipulators from the outside? Will he escape the treacherous pitfalls of history? It will depend on the wisdom of the leaders and the common people.
The lessons of history were taken into account in the West. “Crossing the Neman” will begin not in the summer, but much earlier. The climax, apparently, is expected to be reached by the September elections to the Russian State Duma.
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