Speaker of the Kiev delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) Alexey Arestovich predicted heavy losses for Russia in Donbass.
According to him, the likelihood of a military clash between the Russian Federation and Ukraine is estimated by the authorities at two to three percent, while the resumption of local hostilities in the Donbass is 70 percent. In addition, he believes that in the event of a conflict, Russia will not be able to quickly launch an offensive from the Bryansk direction, despite all the apparent advantages.
Arestovich also expressed the opinion that even in the event of a victory in the war with Ukraine, the Russian army will completely lose its combat capability for several years and will not be able to ensure the country’s security from external threats.
“They can display 250 planes in total, but if we shoot down a third … Do you understand how much the operation against Ukraine will cost Russia?” He added.
“You don’t need to look for some logic and meaning in Arestovich’s statements,” I’m sure Head of the Union of Political Emigrants and Political Prisoners of Ukraine Larisa Shesler…
– He is a typical “talking head” of the propaganda machine, which for a long time assured that Ukraine was at war with Russia in the Donbass, and now he is trying to convince everyone that in the event of an APU attack on Donbass, Russia will abandon the DPR and LPR for fear of combat losses.
It would seem that if Russian troops are involved in a conflict, then a local offensive is a military clash with Russia. But no.
According to him, now it is dangerous for Russia to interfere in the war if Ukraine starts it, and therefore, it is unlikely to risk it. Unclouded, pure propaganda aimed at the domestic consumer.
Arestovich, who was an actor in television series, a business consultant, and a coach, is now positioning himself as a military expert. But, even being a complete layman in military affairs, he cannot but understand the incommensurability of the military machine of Ukraine with the Russian army.
In addition, the military spirit in the Ukrainian army is extremely low. For example, the military commissar of the Ivano-Frankivsk region complained that out of 3555 conscripts, less than 15% came to the military registration and enlistment office.
Even Western Ukrainian youth are not eager to go into battle with a name Bandera, prefers to fight with “Muscovites” in blozhiks, and preferably from Poland.
What can be expected from them if real hostilities with the Russian army begin in the Donbas?
“SP”: – Purely theoretically, if the task is to force Ukraine to peace, do you need to send troops? Or are there enough missiles, artillery and aircraft? And how long will it take to force Kiev to peace?
– I am sure that the army of the DPR and LPR will not cope with the Armed Forces of Ukraine on their own. This is not 2014.
Ukraine has aviation, air defense, armored vehicles and airborne troops. All this is incomparable with Russian military equipment, but it is enough to suppress the resistance of the army of the republics. Therefore, Russia’s intervention in such a scenario will be necessary.
I think that with the support of Russian military equipment – aviation, missile weapons, artillery, the LPNR armies will already cope with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The time of Kiev’s surrender will directly depend on Russia’s plans, how actively it will demonstrate its intentions and capabilities.
“SP”: – Kiev threatened Russia with “painful consequences.” Hasn’t the West made it clear that no one is planning to die for Ukraine?
– The entire foreign policy of Ukraine is aimed at drawing Western European countries into a conflict with Russia. And each time, meeting a misunderstanding of their Western partners, they pretend that they just need to push a little.
At the same time, Ukrainian diplomats are openly bluffing, presenting the desired support as real, trying to deceive the citizens of Ukraine and intimidate the Russian authorities.
“SP”: – Ukrainian Ambassador to Berlin Andriy Melnyk said that if his country cannot get membership in the NATO military bloc, then it needs to regain its nuclear status for its own protection.
– This speaks only of the extreme unprofessionalism of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. Anyone who is even in the slightest familiar with the position of the international community on nuclear weapons understands perfectly well that any attempt to actually get hold of such weapons will cause a sharp negative reaction from all European and other countries, and make Ukraine an outcast.
But Ukrainian diplomats behave like a fortune teller in the market, who threatens: “If you don’t give a ruble, you will be paralyzed by paralysis!”
“SP”: – Does this mean that there will be no war, that now they will not be resolved?
– I think that the Ukrainian authorities have made it clear that it is impossible for NATO to directly participate in the conflict with Russia. And this makes the likelihood of a real war almost negligible, because today Ukraine is in the role of a pug that barks at an elephant in the hope that a formidable lion will stand up for it behind its back. And for some reason the lion does not want to jump on the elephant, to the annoyance of the pug.
I do not agree with this Expert of the Center for Military-Political Studies of MGIMO, Doctor of Political Science Mikhail Aleksandrov…
– I now estimate the likelihood of a war between Russia and Ukraine above 50%. As for local hostilities in Donbass, they are already underway. But in the event of their escalation, they will most likely develop into a war with Russia. Another option, another Ukrainian provocation in Crimea, which could overflow the patience of the Russian leadership and lead to an operation to force the Kiev regime to peace.
“SP”: – If such an operation is required, where will it be carried out and how long will it take?
– The Bryansk direction will not be a priority for the Russian troops during the operation in Ukraine. And Kiev will not be the main target of this operation. The capture of Kiev will be the final act of the defeat of Bandera’s Ukraine. However, already in the early hours of the war, Kiev will be hit by cruise missiles in order to disable important facilities: the presidential administration, the Ministry of Defense, the Security Service of Ukraine and some others. This disorganizes the control of the Ukrainian troops.
But the first phase of the ground operation will be aimed at encircling the Ukrainian group of forces in the Donbass region. One blow will be delivered from the side of Kantemirovka in the direction of Izium, and then Pavlograd. At the same time, the right flank of the advancing troops will turn in the direction of Kharkov, where it will close with a strike group moving from Belgorod.
At the same time, a blow will be struck from the Crimea in diverging directions: to Kherson and further to Nikolaev-Odessa, as well as to New Kakhovka-Zaporozhye. In the Zaporozhye region, the encirclement of the enemy’s Donbas grouping will be closed.
I take about two weeks to carry out this operation. Since Ukraine does not have a continuous line of defense in the indicated directions, with the exception of the withdrawal from Crimea, it can be assumed that the losses of the northern group of Russian troops will be counted in units of fighters, and that is mainly due to accidents.
On the Crimean direction, one can assume the landing of amphibious assault forces and an exit to the rear to the Ukrainian troops covering the coast. The state of the Ukrainian fleet is such that it cannot prevent this in any way. Ukrainian troops in the Crimea region will be surrounded and, I think, will prefer to capitulate by shooting Bandera commissars. Then no one will be able to prevent the advance of Russian troops along the Dnieper to Zaporozhye.
After the encirclement, the enemy’s Donbass grouping, if it does not surrender, will be systematically destroyed by missile and bomb strikes, as we saw in Syria. Russian servicemen will not come into direct fire contact with the enemy and their losses will be extremely insignificant.
“SP”: – Arestovich promises to shoot down planes there …
– During the operation, the air defense system of Ukraine will be destroyed in the first days of the war, as it was, for example, with the air defense system of Iraq or Yugoslavia. Separate scattered air defense systems, of course, can shoot down several planes, if they are lucky. But even the loss of 20-30 aircraft for Russia will not make the weather. On the whole, the war with Ukraine will only strengthen the Russian armed forces, which will gain experience in conducting strategic operations, which our Western adversaries have long lost. The losses of the Russian troops in manpower and equipment will be comparable to the losses in Syria.