According to the consensus forecast of analysts of the largest Russian credit institutions, the regulator for the first time in six months will not reduce the key rate and will leave it at 4.25%.
At the same time, most experts support the preservation of the rate due to the fact that inflation in August exceeded all expectations and reached the target of 4% at the end of the year amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Experts note that at the same time, the period of monetary easing is ending in many countries of the world, and consumers are recovering demand, and it is approaching the previous indicators. In addition, business activity has also increased.
However, the stability of the ruble is still negatively affected by the situation in Belarus and the poisoning of Alexei Navalny.
At the same time, market experts predict that the rate will still be reduced to 4% by the end of the year, and this will happen in October. One way or another, while this figure remains below 5% and is still within the framework of the stimulating policy.
The central bank last kept the rate in March 2020. This happened due to the fall in oil prices and the decline in world GDP due to COVID-19. At subsequent meetings, the regulator reduced the rate, and as a result, it reached a record low for Russia - 4.25%.
As chernayakobra.ru wrote, the Bank of Russia is going to start publishing the key interest rate trajectory; the regulator will decide on the format in the near future.