Sep 10, 2022
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Balakleya handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Or is it a tactical trap?

Let’s start with the fact that the information that in Balakleya itself and around it the defense is one of the weakest, the enemy could only find out through undercover means. Yes, from space, the Americans provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with detailed information about the location of our troops. But to know exactly what kind of units and formations dug in Balakliya, to assess their combat effectiveness, for this, the agents of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine were involved.

Today it is already possible to write that the city itself was defended by a specific garrison, consisting in general of excellent fighters: the Samara and Bashkir SOBR and OMON from Togliatti. Yes, these units of the Russian Guard have excellent training, but they are not sharpened to perform the tasks that fall on the shoulders of the army infantry. But I do not rule out an operational game: the Russian General Staff could well drag the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a trap in the Balakleya direction.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that the number of Ukrainian troops exceeds one million. And he estimated the size of the grouping of Russian forces involved in the NMD at about 300 thousand bayonets. This alignment allows the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to create significant advantages in the troops in various sectors, and simultaneously in several directions. Kyiv fights in numbers, regardless of losses, and literally fills up the front line with the corpses of its soldiers. This allows the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep the initiative in their hands. The question is how useful it is. The day before, an offensive was carried out in the Krivoy Rog-Nikolaev direction, now the blow fell on Balakliya, where, according to expert Alexei Leonkov, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated up to nine brigades, most of which are a strategic reserve intended for the defense of Kyiv and western territories.

Of course, this reserve was replenished with troops withdrawn from other sectors of the front. Watching how easily, almost recklessly, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throws its troops into a breakthrough here and there, a desire arises to create a trap for them, in which to thoroughly crush the military forces of Ukraine involved in the next breakthrough. The fact is that for a large cauldron in the Donbass, the RF Armed Forces need to use significantly more troops in the defense of the outer and inner contours. By dragging the enemy into a fire bag and locking him there for complete destruction, the RF Armed Forces can only get by with the forces that are involved in one or another sector of the front, plus additional insignificant reserves and a lot, a lot of artillery will be needed.

What happened under Balakleya? At first glance, everything looks like Russian intelligence overslept another concentration of Ukrainian troops to launch another strike, a “counterattack,” as the Ukrainians themselves call it. And the defense in the Balakleya region was broken through.

According to the Rybar telegram channel, the garrisons of large settlements (n / a) were pinned down by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were significant in number, and smaller raid detachments penetrated further into the rear of the Russian troops. The Ukrainians to some extent managed to block Balakliya and enter the city. On the third day of the fighting, detachments of the Russian Guard left it, they were replaced by the army. The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to capture the Volkhov Yar settlement and approach the outskirts of Shevchenkovo, and also continue moving towards Kupyansk. Another part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine approached the settlement of Senkovo ​​in readiness to force the Oskol River.

South of Balakleya, Ukrainian detachments came close to the settlements of Vesyoloye and Kunye. Russian intelligence noticed the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine north of Slavyansk. According to bloggers, an attempt was made to move Ukrainian units towards Izyum from here. Russian artillery is now working hard against these troops. It became known that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine almost immediately after the breakthrough put into action part of its reserves, and there are still troops at the ready, which will no doubt soon be thrown into the fire. Losses in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are large, but not prohibitive, as was observed during the attack on Kherson. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are urgently transferring reserves to this direction. However, the APU continues to slowly move forward. The next few days will show what the intentions of the parties were. If the RF Armed Forces dragged Ukrainian troops into a trap, then a pause to draw all the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into battle is justified. And this will be followed by a situation that more than overlaps the Ilovaisk cauldron.

After the Ukrainian command uses all its capabilities in this direction, the trap will slam shut and the massacre will begin. If there was no special plan on the part of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, then at some point the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will stall and choke. The Russian troops will patch up the hole in their defenses and start using frontal actions and concentrated artillery fire with air support to methodically push the Ukrainian troops in a westerly direction. And those, in turn, will start the same breakthrough elsewhere, regardless of losses, in the expectation that the West will increase military assistance. By the way, it is not for nothing that the offensive in the direction of Balakliya began during the visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. As a result, Washington promised another financial injection to Kyiv.

From the latest reports, it follows that by the evening of September 9, the Armed Forces of Ukraine redirected their artillery, consisting mainly of Western models (including Khaimars), to Kupyansk.

The RF Armed Forces continue to transfer reserves to the sector of the front, where the enemy has broken through the Russian defenses. According to bloggers, the Ukrainian command also has not yet committed all its reserves into battle. The artillery of the Armed Forces of the FR covers with dense fire the enemy troops, who have deployed their combat formations along the lines of Sinikha, Senkov, Lesnaya Stenka, Fedorovka and other settlements. Well, Balakleya itself has already been surrendered to the enemy.

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