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Oct 6, 2021
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Autumn governor’s fall started unexpectedly

In the photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin in Novo-Ogaryovo during a meeting with the interim head of the Tambov region administration Maxim Egorov

In the photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin in Novo-Ogaryovo during a meeting with the interim head of the Tambov region administration Maxim Egorov (Photo: Evgeny Paulin / Presidential Press Service / TASS)

The elections to the State Duma have fizzled out, governors have reached out to Okhotny Ryad, and new faces are coming to replace them. President of Russia Vladimir Putin appointed Acting Governors of the Vladimir and Tambov Regions.

Instead of Vladimir Sipyagin, who resigned in connection with his election as a deputy, the Vladimir region will be headed by a former deputy of the lower chamber from “United Russia” Alexander Avdeev, who previously held the posts of Deputy Governor of the Kaluga Region and Mayor of Obninsk.

Admonishing the new head of the region, the head of state noted his experience and high efficiency in each of the previously held positions:

“I hope that all your best qualities will be displayed here, at your new place of work, and I want to wish you success. But, of course, it will be necessary to delve into the problems of the region. The region is important, it is central, one of the central regions of the country. Many problems have accumulated there, and we need to work more closely, of course, with people, with public organizations, just directly with people, even without any intermediaries, ”Vladimir Putin advised the appointee.

Alexander Avdeev promised to do everything for the good of the people of Vladimir.

The head of the Tambov region resigned ahead of schedule Alexander Nikitin, which will be replaced by the former deputy head of the Ministry of Construction Maxim Egorov… As the president noted, the priority areas for the region are precisely those that the former federal official was in charge of in the ministry:

“I hope that during the time that will pass when you will be in charge, you will not only get to know the region better, but will already begin active work on its development, applying the skills and knowledge that you have received at previous jobs”, – said Vladimir Putin.

It is noteworthy that Alexander Nikitin, who headed the region since 2015 and convincingly won the governor’s elections a year ago, had previously refused the mandate of a regional Duma deputy.

Head of the Center for the Development of Regional Policy, political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov not surprised by the resignation of the governor of the Vladimir region, Vladimir Sipyagin, but the resignation of Alexander Nikitin was a surprise:

– He was re-elected last year with great results and yet resignation. I recall the case of the head of the Penza region (IvanaEd.) Belozertseva, who was elected, and then even arrested.

It is obvious that the Kremlin makes some kind of internal requirements for its appointees, which are difficult to read on the public plane. Not re-election, not something else are not a guarantee that they will not be replaced.

New resignations may occur because there are elections next year in 12 or more regions. The so-called governor’s fall traditionally occurs at the beginning of a new political cycle, and it begins after the elections.

“SP”: – Who are among the candidates?

– Of those who are ending their term of office, some will be reassigned, and some will leave. The criteria are different. For example, the head of the Saratov region has been in office for a long time, age, of course, is a factor; someone can go for a promotion. For those who need to be changed in terms of terms, there may be different indicators “for” and “against”.

If we take the unexpected resignations, then, for example, Sipyagin, was the penultimate of the “accidentally” elected. (Governor of the Khabarovsk Territory SergeyEd.) Furgal was arrested, Sipyagin went to the State Duma, remains (head of the Republic of Khakassia ValentineEd.) Konovalov… The question naturally arises, will it (Konovalova – Ed.) also change, because they constantly talk about his resignation.

There are governors who have very low indicators for United Russia in the elections to the State Duma. This is the head of the Kirov region, and Yaroslavl, Yakutia, NAO, Mari El. In theory, they may worry about how the center will assess the fact that they were not able to give good results for United Russia, and in some places even the Communists won. But it is also impossible to say unequivocally that there are signs for resignation, because in some places the opposite result could lead to unrest and, preferring to preserve internal peace, it was decided that it is better to allow the opposition to win than to destabilize the situation in the region.

There is a factor of elite conflicts, as, for example, with Tambov: one of the versions why Nikitin resigned is that he could not cope with the local elites, including the issue of appointing the head of the city of Tambov. There are also conflict regions, which is generally a prerequisite.

Sometimes predictable resignations do not happen, but surprises do happen. All this, rather, is not a forecast, but a fortune-telling, but I have named the main ones.

Political strategist Nikolay Kremlev believes that on two occasions it is too early to talk about the governor’s fall and suggests waiting for the third candidate:

“Although I suspect it’s not far off.

He says nothing about Sipyagin, it was expected. As for Nikitin, on the one hand, it is quite unexpected, on the other, predictable.

Domestic policy in the Tambov region was left to itself. When a year ago Nikitin was re-elected for a new term (he was re-elected confidently, because they know him and treat him well, especially in Michurinsk, where he is from), he was categorically not recommended to be taken as deputy for domestic policy (OlegEd.) Ivanova… But he insisted on it.

Ivanov is a man of the old formation and to a very large extent he is responsible for the total defeat of United Russia in the elections to the Tambov City Duma last year. I talked with some colleagues who were involved in this campaign in the Tambov region, they said that compared to last year, absolutely nothing has changed, just nothing has been done that was necessary.

“SP”: – Who can be next on the list for resignation?

– This is almost a fortune-telling on the coffee grounds. It is necessary to look at who by ratings and who will cause serious problems in the future.

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