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May 7, 2022
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Armenian rebellion, senseless and merciless

Pictured: Opposition protesters in Armenia

In the photo: participants in the opposition protest in Armenia (Photo: Alexander Patrin / TASS)

Armenia is seething. Throughout the republic there are rallies, mass actions of disobedience, fights and clashes with the police. Human shield blocked bridges and highways.

The leaders of the “Voice of Youth” movement and MPs from the “Armenia” faction rule the rallies and massacres. The deputy is especially furious Aram Vardevanyan. From the outside, it seems that he is under the influence of a drug.

Recently, the Kyiv bridge in Yerevan and the Yerevan-Sevan highway were blocked. The slogans “Armenia without Nikola” and “Artsakh will never be Azerbaijani” are heard everywhere.

In Yerevan, the opposition broke into the building of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, suppressed the resistance of the guards and hoisted the flag of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic on the spire of the building.

Foaming at the mouth, the oppositionists prove that the current prime minister, having agreed to the negotiation process on Karabakh with official Baku, betrayed the Armenian people. And that means – down, to the dustbin of history.

Intelligence agencies do not rule out an attempt to seize parliament by supporters of former presidents Kocharyan I Sargsyan. What do the rebels want?

They need the hated one to leave Pashinyanwhich a few years ago they themselves almost carried on their hands to the top of the Armenian political Olympus.

Previously popularly adored, and now deeply (and also popularly) hated, Pashinyan has planned sacrilege. He wants to reconcile with Azerbaijan and Turkey and recognize the whole of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.

For hundreds of thousands of Armenians, such a position is beyond good and evil. So, the national traitor had to be demolished by a mighty hurricane of popular anger.

In fact, the Armenian ship flew into the political storm again.

The republic is being rocked by a “mighty bunch” of local, richly paid enthusiasts from the “revenge party”. Who orders the “Armenian saber dance” is easy to guess. The global goal of the orchestra conductor – the maximum weakening of Russia in the Transcaucasian underbelly – is also understandable.

The technology itself is interesting. Yes, Armenians now have Pashinyan like a bone in their throat. And for everyone – both pro-Russian and pro-Western. But today it suits Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. He is also the guarantor of the signed peace agreements and stability in the region. And he is now holding a closed round of negotiations with representatives of the Foreign Ministries of Turkey and Azerbaijan. It could be a historical document that would start relations between states from scratch.

But this is precisely what does not suit the Armenian revanchists. And who is prepared instead? Any pro-Russian politician? Unlikely. Because he will do exactly the same thing that Pashinyan is doing now. Both Kocharyan and Sargsyan were also once pro-Russian. And neither one nor the other at one time failed to retain power. The Americans guarding Pashinyan outplayed them. And what then is the point of changing the awl for soap?

This means that the new applicant will not be pro-Russian. Or will the same Kocharyan change his geopolitical orientation? They say that one of the triggers of the process is the Armenian generals. For the most part, these are pupils and graduates of Russian military schools. But are the Armenian generals the carriers of the Russian agenda in the region? Is not a fact. From the fact that they once graduated from Russian military universities, almost all of them acquired Russian wives during their studies, it does not follow at all that mentally and spiritually they became pro-Russian.

And then – the generals, these are people who live in war. This is their destiny, their life, their career, their vocation, their element. And some of them, by the way, wanted to go down in history as great commanders – like the same “mountain fox” Ter-Tadevosyanwho once liberated Karabakh.

The simple and homespun idea that the war can be lost miserably (which happened not so long ago), and the state of Armenia itself will cease to exist after that, they, for some mental or purely professional qualities, cannot shelter in their minds.

But not only the military and former presidents want military revenge.

The Armenian Foreign Minister recently embarked on a long tour of America, where he meets daily with anyone – from local Armenian tire fitters to senators and representatives of the State Department. The goal is clear – he offers them a “citizen of Armenia” for temporary use, in exchange for a “package of specific proposals” that can, if not return Karabakh, then indulge the utterly hurt Armenian pride.

Sympathizers think. And something is sure to be offered. Most likely it will be an implicit (or “transparent”) Ukrainian scenario.

What does Uncle Sam need in Transcaucasia? We need a war. Are there forces in Armenia capable of inflating it? Theoretically, there is. The demographic resources of three-million Armenia against ten-million Azerbaijan and seventy-million Turkey are, of course, zilch. And the Americans do not want to send their manpower to the continent. But. The Ukrainian case showed that it is quite possible to fight on foreign territory without regular troops.

That’s what mercenaries are for. For the same Ukraine, according to the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharovathere is a whole army running about them – about seven thousand people. More than a thousand of them were slaughtered by Russian artillery, but this gang of planetary butchers, like a hydra, instead of one severed head, several grow. Those who want to get into the Ukrainian hell at the recruitment points simply line up.

Second. You can pump up Armenia with military equipment – like the same Ukraine. Some long-range M177 howitzers. Let them fight. Third. You can train Armenian artillerymen to work with rather complex modern equipment, self-propelled gun mounts and multiple launch rocket systems. And maybe not only Armenian ones. Some of the mercenaries are quite self-trainable.

And now let’s estimate how events can develop after the pumping of Armenia with weapons. There are several options here too. And one is worse than the other.

First. Armenians (or mercenaries) are hitting Azerbaijani positions in Karabakh. For the same Shusha, for example. Azerbaijanis immediately planted from all trunks in response. And since Stepanakert is in direct line of sight from Shushi, the capital of Karabakh will be the first to suffer. Further, the situation unwinds at the speed of a compressed spring. The Azerbaijani army, under the supervision of Turkey, will do everything possible to rush to Yerevan in the shortest possible time and turn it into a second Mariupol. A humanitarian catastrophe, a sea of ​​blood, crowds of refugees…

And how will the Russian peacekeepers behave? And as ordered. They can intervene in this massacre, or they can step aside. Like “you’ve been warned many times.” Entering into a direct military conflict with NATO member Turkey because of unsatisfied Armenian ambitions is not the height of geopolitical and military thought.

And then – goodbye, Armenia. We count losses and gains. Russia loses the last Christian outpost in Transcaucasia. Turkey is getting stronger in the region. Armenia itself disappears from the world map. Or it turns into a miserable territorial stump – into some kind of buffer zone, into which the current bleeding Ukraine will soon turn.

Option two, more insidious. Mercenaries (or the Armenians themselves) are attacking Russian positions from the Azerbaijani side. They answer. The military conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan boils up. But it will certainly be short-lived.

Insert I Aliyev instantly understand the true causes of what happened. And the attitude towards Armenia on both sides will worsen even more.

The third option is just crazy. This is the Georgian case. Armenians, I’m not hiding, are attacking Russian peacekeepers. And the conflict is already breaking out between Armenia and Russia. But this is complete political suicide. Although the Georgians at one time went for it.

The only one, in any case, will remain the obvious winner – America. If the Armenians manage to recapture Karabakh, the Americans will click on the nose of the hated Erdogan and they will create a hotbed of instability near Russia, into which firewood can be thrown endlessly.

If Armenia is demolished, NATO partner Turkey will take its place. Erdogan is not eternal. Sooner or later he will leave. But NATO will remain in the region. Look, another “appointed” president will be more accommodating. And NATO will have its own fleet in the Caspian Sea, and a jump base near Iran. Where can you slap the Persians on occasion.

And for the Armenians themselves – no matter where you throw it – everywhere is a wedge. Armenian time trouble. “Peacemaker” Pashinyan, of course, is unbearable. But the prospect of losing their historical homeland is even worse.

But everything could have been completely different if the Armenians agreed with Russia in due time. Would live not grieve. No. The family curse won’t let go. But at one time, the collapse of the Soviet Union began precisely with the Karabakh problem. And now Armenia may well fall apart. Or at least lose another part of the territory – as they once lost the Ararat Valley and Karabakh. Well, history still doesn’t teach anyone anything. But he severely avenges his ignorance.

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