At the end of March, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine announced the presence of not only armed Russian aggression, but also a Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The supreme legislative body of “Nezalezhnaya” has an eloquent abbreviation – VRU (Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine). Nevertheless, one cannot ignore such statements. Military expert Vladimir Gundarov assessed what was happening around Donbass and gave his forecast.
He did not rule out that Kiev was preparing provocations that could really start a war. “Big wars start with small provocations. At the same time, their initiators, instigators and perpetrators do not know how and when their adventure will end, ”says the expert’s article, which was published by the electronic edition“ Army Standard ”.
Gundarov recalled that the Sarajevo murder in 2014 led to the death of 10 million people during the First World War, and the staged attack by SS men dressed in Polish uniform on the German border radio station in Gleiwitz triggered the start of World War II, in which 70 million died.
The expert made a prediction: The Third World War will also begin with a provocation. “You can even indicate its place and time – Crimea and southeastern Ukraine, on the eve, during or immediately after the major NATO military exercises,” the expert writes.
In his opinion, Ukraine and NATO are already discussing the scenario of military operations and practicing them on the ground.
According to Gundarov, the provocation will most likely take place in the fall. Then the military exercises “United Efforts-2021” will be held in Ukraine. In 2020, 12 thousand military personnel took part in them. One of the tasks is to test a new automated control system for forces and assets. The results of the test were classified. Perhaps the system turned out to be “raw”.
General Khomchak, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that the exercises will be “even more powerful” in the fall of 2021. Who knows how they will end for a country called Ukraine? – the expert asks a rhetorical question.
He did not rule out that the provocation could be arranged in the airspace over the Crimea by the hands of the Ukrainians. Similar to what happened over Donbass on July 17, 2014 with the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER on flight MH17.
The expert listed the facts that indicate that NATO is preparing a provocation in the Black Sea region. Alliance ships are registered there. In Romania, at the Kapia Turzi airbase, a command center for American MQ-9 reconnaissance drones has been created. They “inspect” the Russian border around the clock. Manned reconnaissance aircraft of the US and British Air Forces also take off from the territory of Romania.
Over the year, the intensity of NATO reconnaissance in the Black Sea has increased by 45%. NATO reconnaissance aircraft patrolled close to the Russian Federation more than 1000 times.
NATO reconnaissance aircraft practically went on alert in the area of the Russian borders near the Crimea and Krasnodar Territory.
In 2020, the United States carried out over 140 reconnaissance flights near our southern borders, demonstratively conducting 13 large-scale exercises, in which more than 40 thousand troops from NATO and partner countries took part. “Over the past 100 years, only Hitlerite Germany showed such military activity on the eve of the attack on the Soviet Union,” the expert writes.
The Pentagon is pulling more and more forces to the Crimea, developing the base infrastructure and logistics for providing all types of food allowances. It is clear that NATO will not give up the Black Sea under any circumstances, the analyst concludes.
In 2021, 8 military exercises of the multinational forces will be held on the territory of Ukraine and in the Black Sea. It is planned to involve 21 thousand Ukrainian military personnel and about 11 thousand foreign participants in participation. Among the exercises are Sea Breeze, Rapid Trident, Ukrainian-British exercises Cossack Mace and Warrior Watcher. The Ukrainian-Romanian exercises “Coastal” (Riverine), the Ukrainian-Polish exercises “Three Swords” and “Silver Saber” will also take place.
According to the expert, all NATO activities are aimed at provoking the Russian military. “This behavior is popularly called“ teasing geese ”. It will be fraught with dire consequences. No, not for NATO, but for those countries controlled by the North Atlantic Alliance, ”concludes Vladimir Gundarov.