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Jan 11, 2022
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Analysts have named the main economic trend of 2022


Analysts named the main financial and economic trend of 2022. In their opinion, expressed in conversations with “Lenta.ru”, it could be tightening of monetary policy by central banks of different countries.

Vladislav Danilov from Sberbank Asset Management believes that the main trends in the new year will be the long-awaited tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy (at the moment, its rate continues to hold at the level of 0-0.25 percent) and the growth of investor interest in China.

Alexander Bakhtin from BCS World of Investments believes that not only the Fed, but most of the world’s central banks in 2022 will move to a cycle of rate hikes, trying to prevent further price increases and overheating of the economy.

In turn, Olga Belenkaya, an analyst at Finam, considers the recovery of the world economy to be the main trend of the new year. “The main trend of 2020 was the crisis caused by the pandemic; the trend of 2021 is a rapid recovery in demand and an unexpected in scale and duration of inflation. The main trend of the next year may be the return of the world economy to a more sustainable trajectory after the coronavirus crisis. A difficult return to postcoid normality, ”she said.

In December 2021, the Russian Central Bank raised the key rate to 8.5 percent per annum. Thus, for the year, the increase amounted to 4.25 percentage points. At the same time, the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina said that the Central Bank will be ready to return the key rate to a neutral range of 5-6 percent no earlier than 2023.

In turn, the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) has maintained its base rate at 0-0.25 percent since spring 2020. Currently, the Fed is winding down the quantitative easing program, which provides for the purchase of corporate and treasury bonds, through a gradual reduction in the volume of purchases. The rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) remains at zero. In December, the regulator started “soft tightening” of the policy by curtailing the quantitative easing program.

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