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Apr 8, 2021
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Analysts assessed the impact of the ruble exchange rate on the Russian economy

Analysts in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta told why the ruble is falling in price and how it will affect the economy.

The day before, the dollar rate rose to 77 rubles, and the euro exceeded 92 rubles for the first time since February.

Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, believes that, in general, the weakening of the ruble this year is taking place against the backdrop of a global trend towards strengthening the dollar. According to him, inflationary expectations in the United States began to grow rapidly, which led to the yield of American government bonds. The consequence was an outflow of capital from emerging markets, including the Russian one, the expert explained.

Daria Menshikh, an analyst at Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Forecasting, believes that the increase in ruble volatility is temporary.

Vasiliev added that the current weakening of the ruble is likely to have a positive effect for the budget.

“At current oil prices, the Ministry of Finance will probably be able to reduce the budget this year with a minimal deficit. This allows us to finance all the expenses included in the budget and reduce the pressure on the debt market, ”he is sure.

Smaller, in turn, noted that the consolidation of the exchange rate at a weaker level for a long time already carries more significant pro-inflationary risks.

Earlier, AiF.ru learned from experts what factors will support the ruble in April, and which will weaken, as well as what will rise in price by the summer.

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