For six months, the coronavirus pandemic has changed the world: borders are closed, millions of people study and work from home, states are spending billions on saving economies. Against this background, financial institutions predict profound changes in the life we all are used to. AiF.ru has collected the most shocking predictions.
The era of chaos
The era of globalization that began in 1980 will be replaced by an era of unrest, Deutsche Bank predicts. Everything will begin with a change in the world economic leader: instead of the United States, China will become number one. Note that the economy of the Middle Kingdom was the first among the largest in the world to start growing after the pandemic. China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.2%. American GDP for the same period fell by a record amount: by 9.5%. The confrontation between Washington and Beijing will resemble the Cold War between the USA and the USSR. The consequences of this confrontation will be felt by the whole world.
At the same time, global debt will grow, governments will increasingly distribute "helicopter money", and the influence of young generations entering adulthood in the 21st century will increase. As German experts predict, in ten years the number of voters of millennials and younger generations in the G20 countries will exceed the number of voters of older generations. This alignment "will change the results of political elections and, accordingly, politics."
Along with political shifts, prices will rise, competition between generations will begin to intensify, and even a technological revolution is possible: if the current estimates of technology companies turn out to be reasonable, the world will face a technological breakthrough, otherwise the so-called. the dot-com crisis of 2000.
Great Depression of the XXI century
In the spring, when states were just beginning to be quarantined due to COVID-19, the International Monetary Fund warned of the risk of plunging the global economy into the deepest crisis since the Great Depression. If the outcome is favorable, according to the IMF forecast, the world will be able to recover from the crisis only next year, missing $ 9 trillion.
Back in the fall, the International Monetary Fund expected global GDP to grow by 3.4%, now it expects a decline of 3%. The World Bank is even more pessimistic: this year the economy will collapse by 5.2%. The developed countries will be the hardest hit: their GDP will shrink by 7%. The economies of developing countries and countries with emerging markets by the end of this year will decline by 2.5%. This will be the first "all-encompassing recession in this group of countries in at least 60 years," according to the World Bank. For understanding: according to the World Bank, during the last world crisis in 2009, global GDP contracted by 2.2%.
“The current crisis has a truly planetary scale, no country can escape it. For the first time since the Great Depression, both developed and developing countries will find themselves in recession, ”warns IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath...
Due to the pandemic, the world will be swept by a wave of poverty. The World Bank predicts that the number of people living in extreme poverty could rise to 60 million.
“Up to 60 million people will be driven into poverty, nullifying the efforts to fight poverty over the past three years. Families have lost loved ones, millions of jobs and livelihoods have been lost, health systems are under tremendous pressure, ”said World Bank President David Malpas.
Famine "biblical proportions"
And where there is poverty, there is hunger: the UN predicts that it can reach "biblical proportions."
According to the UN World Food Program, 265 million people could face severe food insecurity by the end of this year. This is twice as much as last year. As stated WFP Lead Economist Arif Hussain, due to the quarantine and economic downturn, the situation in starving countries has become even worse. These are primarily African countries, where half of the population goes hungry. They also often face hunger in the states of the Middle East and Asia (43 million people), Latin American countries (18.5 million people).
According to Executive Director of the World Food Program David Beasley, The coronavirus pandemic is the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II.