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Jan 28, 2021
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Amid undisguised fears of Britain’s collapse

What’s up with a sense of British identity?

British newspaper Sunday Times conducted a series of opinion polls that showed that Britain “is facing a constitutional crisis and the sense of British identity that once united the country is falling apart.”

Scotland and Northern Ireland want a new referendum on Scottish independence and unification of Ireland. In fact, they want the United Kingdom to disintegrate. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has announced that it is ready to hold its own referendum if Boris Johnson refuses to conduct it himself.

Scotland and Northern Ireland want a new referendum on Scottish independence and unification of Ireland.

The main reasons for the change in the mood of the Scots, as we wrote, become Brexi and “Edinburgh’s desire to remain in the European Union, into the economy of which Scotland is more integrated than the rest of the United Kingdom.”

Public opinion in Scotland and Northern Ireland was certainly influenced by the unprecedented economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus restrictions. British Chancellor of the Treasury Rishi Sunak, during the presentation of the budget for 2021, announced a decline in GDP by 11.3 percent, which is “the largest drop in production in more than 300 years.”

Britain’s exit from the EU also played a role. Since the referendum on leaving the European Union, the British economy has lost almost 700 million euros weekly and began to slow down long before the lockdown was introduced. Commercial activity slowed down in all areas: construction, industrial production, service sector were affected … This decline was observed for the first time since September 2012.

In 2021, losses to British exporters from Brexit could reach 25 billion pounds due to falling demand, complicated bureaucratic procedures and a weakening of the British currency.

In 2021, losses to British exporters from Brexit could reach 25 billion pounds due to falling demand, complicated bureaucratic procedures and a weakening of the British currency.

The world’s largest export credit insurance company, Euler Hermes believes that the British economy will be able to return to pre-crisis levels only in 2023.

Another threat, and perhaps the most critical, is the depletion of Britain’s energy resources. Natural gas production in the United Kingdom has declined steadily since 2003. The proven reserves of British gas fields are also steadily declining. If in 1995 Great Britain had 0.7 trillion cubic meters. m of proven reserves, and in 2005 – 0.5 trillion cubic meters. m, then in 2019 – only 0.2 trillion cubic meters. m. In the near future, the country will be forced to import gas. The share of LNG in the total volume of gas imports will increase, the review says Global Gas Analytics (GGA)… Depleted oil reserves on the British North Sea shelf.

Britain will not be able to compensate for these losses through the production of shale gas, since after the tremors recorded in the north of England, the government of Boris Johnson re-imposed a moratorium on the use of hydraulic fracturing.

Britain is bursting at the seams

Expansion of British oil and gas corporations abroad is becoming one of the main, if not the most important, national security priority of the United Kingdom.

In January 2019, Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and Palestine entered into an agreement on the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum; company Total SA, Eni, Exxon and Russia’s Novatek have signed gas exploration and production agreements with these governments. However, at the end of last year, Turkey’s strategic partner “Exacerbated the situation by signing with Libya (with the government of Faiz Saraj – Ed.) memorandum on the demarcation of maritime zones “… In January 2020, the Turkish parliament approved the decision to send a limited military contingent to Libya.

Ankara does not recognize the exclusive economic zones of Cyprus, where energy companies from the United States, Britain, France and Italy operate. The Turkish authorities said they would not allow these countries to conduct research, work and production.

The appointment of the new head of British intelligence MI6, Richard Moore, a personal friend of Turkish President Erdogan, is due, as we wrote, with the fact that the UK does not believe in the possibility of the project EastMed without the consent of Turkey and does not want to bet on the “lame horse”. The head of British intelligence, who has great influence on the Turkish and Azerbaijani elites, lobbied for an alternative to the project EastMed project STOP – Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Turkey to the Greek border; continuation STOP became CLICK – Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline from Greece to Italy via Albania.

At the beginning of January 2021, the TAP gas pipeline, where British petroleum has a 20% stake, started to supply Azerbaijani gas directly to Europe – to Greece and further by sea to Italy.

After the end of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Britain, as noted by Russian military analyst Alexander Sobyanin, received direct access to the Caspian oil and gas fields with the possibility of further penetration into Central Asia.

The plans to achieve energy independence by expanding the hydrocarbon base controlled by British corporations, at first glance, contradict the guidelines set out in the report by Global Britain, Global Broker, published on January 11. This is the report Chatam House (Royal Institute of International Affairs)in which Britain is offered the maximum “Leverage our commitment to reduce carbon emissions alongside our co-chairmanship at COP26 (UN Conference on Climate Change .– Ed.)to ensure tighter national commitments to climate change from the US and China, two of the world’s largest emitters. “… However, the same report explains that if the European Union finds some kind of mechanism, “Which will allow EU companies to compete on equal terms with importers from countries with lower or no restrictions on the carbon intensity of their products”, and “Depending on how the US, China and other countries with high carbon industries react to it, the UK may have to follow the EU’s lead with this new trade measure.”

In other words, the UK will, from the UN rostrum, demand from other countries to reduce carbon emissions, that is, refuse to rely on oil and gas, and itself will behave “depends on a situation”… I remember comment Jacques Attali that “The Anglo-Saxons, among other shortcomings, inherited from the old days, when they were omnipotent, the delusion of belief in their impunity”

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson. Photo: REUTERS Toby Melville

Boris Johnson the other day instructed to his advisor John Bew, professor of history and foreign policy at King’s College London, to develop a new foreign policy strategy for the United Kingdom. The report that John Bew and his team is working on should conceptually align with the key messages of the report Chatam housein which the author of the report is the director Chatam house Robin Niblett sees Britain as not a small great power (miniature great power), and a broker – an intermediary in solving global problems (broker of solutions to global problems)

The Niblet report lays out six goals for UK foreign policy: “Defending liberal democracy; promoting international peace and security; combating climate change; making global health more sustainable; advocating for global tax transparency and equitable economic growth; cyberspace protection “

The UK has the potential for global influence and will be able to succeed in promoting liberal democracy around the world, says Robin Niblett. He calls Biden’s America his most important ally, referring to the previous US authorities as a “subversive administration” (subversive US administration), “Which questioned international institutional structures”

“The United States will remain Britain’s most important ally in the full sense of the word: the country on which the UK existentially depends for its security and with which it has the closest and broadest bilateral security relations, ranging from nuclear cooperation to intelligence cooperation. “– says the Chatam House report.

The second most important ally of Great Britain as a global mediator is the European Union, which Niblett describes with disdain as “a slow and undemocratic institution with strict regulatory obligations”; Britain needed to leave the EU to “Restore sovereignty over your future”

Niblett admits the possibility of a UK breakup as “Serious event”… But it won’t undermine, he thinks “The main opportunities for the UK to achieve consensus among like-minded countries”guided by the principles of liberal democracy.

The readiness of the head of the Royal Institute of International Affairs to sacrifice the integrity of the United Kingdom in the name of the triumph of globalism cannot but amaze.

The “Global Broker” intends to use the most modern technologies to solve global problems. “Soft power is already yesterday, now the next, more complex level of management is in use – smart power”, or “smart power”, notes Russian analyst Konstantin Cheremnykh.

And yet, the voluminous work of the leading British “thinking tank”, closely associated with the royal family, leaves an ambiguous feeling. Between the lines of the report Chatam house one reads bitter regret for the lost British power, the undisguised fear of the collapse of the country and a desperate attempt to remain the squire of the overseas power.

Cover photo: UK protests, REUTERS / Henry Nicholls

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