Scientists have calculated the expected death rate for people aged 25-44 in the United States in 2020, based on its levels in 2015-2019. They then compared it to the real mortality rate between March 1 and July 31, 2020.
The authors of the study report that about 76 thousand people aged 25-44 died in the United States over the period under review – this is almost 12 thousand more than the estimated data. About 4,500 of these people have died from COVID-19. Thus, the new coronavirus infection is directly responsible for 38% of excess mortality.
In recent years, the leading cause of death in people aged 25-44 in the United States has been opiate overdose. Scientists report that in 2020, in some regions, COVID-19 “bypassed” overdose, becoming the leading cause of death.
In this study, the authors do not explain where excess mortality comes from other than deaths from COVID-19. However, they point out that the coronavirus could have been the direct cause of more deaths due to unrecorded cases.
Previous research showed that excess all-cause mortality differs from country to country during a pandemic. In countries with low to moderate incidence of coronavirus infection, it changes little. At the same time, for example, in Spain, which has been hit hard by COVID-19, this type of mortality has increased more than in the United States.