Events on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border have developed with incredible speed over the past few years. Accurately in the first days of the summit of the SCO heads of state, shooting breaks out on the border. Like notes. The number of victims of the conflict among the Armenians exceeded one hundred, and at some point, Azerbaijani troops occupied about ten square kilometers of the territory of Armenia. Simply due to the fact that it is more convenient for them to live, serve and provide the construction of infrastructure for communication with Nakhichevan. Pashinyanwho earlier in the month and a half of the war had not found the time to turn to the CSTO for help, this time demonstrated the reflexes of an acrobat on the trapeze and sharply turned to the CSTO. Basically, of course, to Russia.
The very idea of getting into a chronic conflict did not please all members of the CSTO without exception (except, of course, Armenia). For this would mean the transition of the conflict to a large-scale interstate level. And the specter of war with Azerbaijan and Turkey would have appeared on the agenda. And who needs this in the CSTO and why? Especially Russia, and especially now that it has been swallowed up by Ukraine? This is despite the fact that we now have quite good partnership relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey …
In addition, the Kremlin, like the sword of Damocles, is dominated by the stereotype Tokaev. A man’s life was saved during a riot, and in response – sheer multi-vectority … Gratitude, of course, is not an integral part of Big Politics, but public rudeness is also. In addition, rotation and pirouettes on three chairs have not brought anyone to good. Ask Akayeva With Poroshenko.
In general, instead of a war, the CSTO decided to send a special commission to the scene of events to achieve a settlement through diplomatic means. But the Armenians expected something else. And went for broke – they invited a Taiwanese fury to their place Pelosi. But this was already serious.
State Duma deputy Alexey Zhuravlev from somewhere I got an invoice for the arrival of the fury, and posted it in my Telegram channel. “Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Yerevan will cost Armenian taxpayers $120 million,” he writes. — For one of the poorest countries in the Caucasus, this is a colossal budget. Armenian lobbyists in Washington received through the bank Ruben Vardanyan $75 million. Of these, $50 million is a one-time contribution to the Democratic Party. The remainder of $25 million is the cost of the visit itself, including flight and security for 72 hours. As a result of the visit, a non-public Armenian company will receive another $15 million for organizing the visit and Pelosi’s final communiqué in defense of Nikol Pashinyan. Ruben Vardanyan himself will receive $ 30 million from the treasury of Armenia, Anatoly Chubaisas the author and executor of the order, and the modest brother of Pashinyan. All in equal shares of $10 million, so that no one is offended.”
Not weak. This is what it means to have a Taiwanese background.
Turkish Opening or Armenian Gambit?
In general, Vardanyan has recently become an extremely toxic person for the Kremlin. To slip out of the sanctions, he, according to another political scientist, Sergei Markov“decided to throw away Russian citizenship and move to Armenia.” Specifically, in Karabakh. He moved and immediately became actively involved in the military and political process. He desperately needed an incident at the border to unleash the Pelosi project. And therefore, there is a strong suspicion that the banker organized it. With his money and opportunities, it’s quite realistic. The price of the issue is a hundred Armenian corpses. Permissible risks of the transaction, so to speak. Big Politics in a small homeland with little bloodshed. A kind of “Armenian gambit” – we will sacrifice a small part of the nation in order to save it all.
For the sake of objectivity, it must be admitted that the Azerbaijanis have long been thinking about the conflict in order to enter the disputed territory for the construction of the Zangezur corridor. The Armenians stubbornly refused to comply with the terms of the armistice, fearing that Karabakh would be completely cut off from Armenia.
And then Turkey pulled up troops to the border. Erdogan He obviously knew something too. Just like that, army corps do not drive back and forth. It is possible that the Turkish leader has a much wider planning horizon than Pashinyan. And in this horizon, Armenia is assigned the role of a sacred victim in the future. Erdogan knew (or guessed) that the CSTO members would not want to get involved in this conflict. He also guessed that the restless Pashinyan would brush aside the diplomatic mission of the alliance and rush into the American arms. What he needed and wanted.
The calculation of the Turk was fully justified. Occupied by Ukraine, Russia objectively weakened its presence in the South Caucasus. Pashinyan’s frankly pro-American (and therefore anti-Russian) demarche will speed up this process. The Americans will help Armenia only in words (which they have already done through Pelosi). They just need the votes of the American Armenian community on the eve of the upcoming elections. To expect that they will be able to put pressure on Azerbaijan or Turkey is naivete. Azerbaijan has long been under the Turkish military-political “umbrella”, and Turkey, although a member of NATO, remembers this only because of great political need. And Erdogan remembers very well who initiated the military coup in his country, when they wanted to issue a one-way ticket to the Turkish leader. And then saved him Insertby the way. And some Pelosi (and those behind her) have a very limited influence on the Turk. And he plays his game. And this game is out.
And if everything goes as he planned, then Turkey can calmly deal with the “final solution of the Armenian issue.” At least in the South Caucasus.
Therefore, it is completely possible that the border incident was a small “war by agreement.” For it was beneficial to all its participants.
Pelosi in Armenia has just not been worn on the hands. Pashinyan himself and his entourage simply hit the bottom with their sycophancy. Everything was violated – both diplomatic etiquette and all facets of decency. The whole of Yerevan is hung with US flags. On the day of the visit of the American, a rally was held in the capital of Armenia for Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO and from the union with Russia. To please Pelosi, the Armenian authorities removed portraits of Russian President Putin from billboards in the city center. More precisely, on the road from the airport to the center.
An anti-Russian rally gathered near the Cafesjian Center for the Arts, where she gave a speech, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was emphatically gallant at a rendezvous with a guest. Nancy Pelosi on this day became the main hero of the Armenian people. She burst into tears while visiting the memorial in memory of the victims of the Armenian genocide. “We see the readiness of the US government to support the democratic agenda of our country,” the prime minister cuckooed. Approximately in the same style, all the leaders of the post-Soviet states, without exception, spread out before the Americans – Askar Akaev, Poroshenko, Saakashvili… It’s good that at least they remained alive.
At the same time, the guest tirelessly urged Yerevan to abandon the military alliance with Russia. Pelosi called Azerbaijan an authoritarian state and a “deadly aggressor” that “attacked the sovereignty of Armenia.” And the emboldened Armenians again felt like a force. But in fact it was an invitation to the Great War in the Caucasus.
By the way, the Americans themselves made it clear many times to both Georgia and Armenia that in the event of some large-scale hostilities for their satellites, they would not “fit in”. Help with weapons? No problem. Train your soldiers and officers? Please. Catch up with an army of mercenaries? It’s also possible. But to fight for you with a regular army – sorry. All by yourself.
The Georgians fully appreciated the American support in August 2008. The Americans then skillfully set them on South Ossetia, and then just as skillfully threw them. Mikheil Saakashvili (the then president) had to first chew his tie like a camel’s thorn, and then fly faster than a deer to the Batumi airport. The Russian army, along with Chechen detachments, was rapidly approaching the capital of Georgia, and Mishiko had a strong suspicion that he himself might be pulled up on this tie.
And if then the Americans left the Georgians to their fate, why should they stand up for the Armenians?
Now they desperately need to set fire to the Caucasian underbelly of Russia – in order to pull its forces into two fronts. And Armenia was chosen as a battering ram and sacral victim. Only in the fire of this war (if it is unleashed) Armenia has every chance to disappear from the world map.
If Armenia disappears…
Will it be a big shock for Russia?
Is not a fact. Now Georgia has disappeared from the horizon of our diplomatic relations – have we lost something from this? Yes, I think we just won. Less headache. Georgia is turning into a “territory of interests” before our very eyes. Or rather, in the Turkish vilayet. On the streets of Batumi, Turkish speech can be heard much more often than Georgian. And the Georgians themselves are turning into a dispersed nation before our very eyes. A people without a state is like Kurds or Assyrians.
Armenia can become the same “territory of interests” if it is defeated in the war that America is pushing it into. The Armenians, already dispersed all over the world, will disperse even more. A significant part of them will flow to the same Krasnodar Territory in order to earn money here and “comb” their old grievances against Russia that once saved them.
And the territory will be divided “according to interests” between the two key players in the region – Turkey and Iran. The Americans will wash their hands and evaporate across the ocean. They did their job.
We now have “complimentary” relations with both Turkey and Iran. Unlike Armenia. Iran generally helps with drones.
And Russia will again become guilty in understanding the citizens of the former Armenia – because it left when it was demanded of it.
That’s the whole story.