Jan 12, 2021
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“America stumbled.” Illegal scout – on the causes of the crisis in the United States

About how the United States came to life like this and how it can end, “AiF” was told by an illegal intelligence officer, a retired SVR colonel who had worked abroad for more than 20 years under the pseudonym Donald Heathfield. Andrei Bezrukov, Associate Professor, Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems, MGIMO

The fight is for money

Ekaterina Barova, “AiF”: Why is there such a split in the USA? The storming of the Capitol – was it the apotheosis?

Andrey Bezrukov: This is not an apotheosis, but signs of a real crisis. The fact is that the United States is economically divided into two countries. There are two types of economies that compete with each other. The first is the traditional industrial economy that has made the United States a global power. This is the oil and gas sector, it is chemistry, heavy industry, logistics, etc. And there is the economy of large technologies and finance, which for the last 20 years have completely dominated and grew faster than others. Because of this, the industrial competitiveness of the United States was constantly falling, simply because money did not go to that economy. They were taken abroad, invested in more profitable projects in China, Mexico, etc. Because it was cheaper and the return on capital was higher. Naturally, when competitiveness falls, jobs go away. This part of America felt left out, it began to fight for its future. So came to power Trump… Behind him are just big industrial groups, and behind Biden is the tech sector – Facebook and so on – finance.

The lifestyle of deep America, which is still largely white because emigrants travel to the big cities for the most part, is the traditional American dream, the church, and conservative values. And liberal values ​​dominate in the urban environment, where everything is mixed, religion has already been forgotten, where radicals of all stripes are fighting. These two America do not see each other at close range. But earlier, against the background of the fact that everything was fine, there was a melting pot that made the next generation of migrants already typical Americans, when there was enough money to plug holes in social policy, when they believed that each next generation would live better , there was no such obvious crisis. Now the younger generation cannot find a job, everything is too expensive, tuition debts are very large, insurance is very expensive, etc. In addition, the economic growth rate has slowed down very much, especially after the 2008 crisis. No matter how much money is poured into it, all the same out of 10 dollars, only 2 work for real growth, and all the rest go into bubbles. And this America just stumbled. Its two conditional parts hate each other, because they have different economic and political interests, they have nothing in common. That is why they are turning to violence, everything has slipped into the struggle of individuals.

There is no longer any way to let off steam in the system: it is ready to explode, because one half thinks that it was simply “thrown”.

– Is the impeachment of Trump a demonstrative gesture or has an applied meaning?

– It has absolutely no applied value. AND Biden, by the way, does not want to do this. What’s the point? He will only worsen his contractual opportunities with Trump supporters later. And this Nancy Pelosi, this is, so to speak, “Baba Yaga against”, which was angry with Trump, because he publicly disgraced her several times. These are dirty personal showdowns, according to the principle “let’s destroy it to the end now.” And here the system also stumbled: it was not made in order to somehow moderate such big contradictions, because it was built on the fact that the elite was always united. When the elite is not united, all this talk about democracy, about honesty, all aside, because there is a struggle for gigantic money and gigantic power. Now everyone can see that not a single instrument of democracy works, and two groups of the population simply hate each other. There is no longer any way to let off steam in the system: it is ready to explode, because one half thinks that it was simply “thrown”. And moreover, they spat in the face, because they do not even allow to speak on this matter.

It will be very hot

– Do you think there will be an explosion? Or will Biden be able to release the brakes?

– Maybe in the first months it will be possible to lower it. Now everyone understands: the game has been played, Trump has been removed, and it is necessary to somehow agree so that at least everything will come back to normal. But 72% of the Republican Party, which is firmly behind Trump, will consolidate, find or create their own media platform, and become radicalized. In the 2022 elections, we will see a different Republican Party. However, these are flowers. The berries will be for the Democratic Party. If the Republicans had kept the Senate, the Democrats would have had the opportunity to say: “We cannot do anything from what we promised you, because the Republicans are blocking.” And it turned out what happened. After all, the Democrats did not really have a complete victory: it is partly falsified, partly just accidental, like in Georgia in the Senate elections. Now, no matter what bad happens, Biden will be to blame in six months. And everything would be fine if the Democratic Party were united. And she is just not at all united. There are young democrats from the left flank who want power, and although they are not ready for it, they still really want power. And they have a program, followed by a large number of young people. But the old corrupt group led by Pelosi and Biden really came to power and seized all the key positions. This group will not change anything, they just keep the system for themselves, like Brezhnev’s Politburo. These people are able to do everything to stay in power, there are no principles left. On the other hand, this is a group that is physically dying out: Pelosi is 80, Biden is also under 80. They will have to leave soon. And the young will demand that they leave in order to carry out radical reforms. It is necessary to completely remake the US infrastructure for the tasks of the new technological cycle, to remake education – to make it of high quality and cheap for everyone, – to remake health insurance. It is necessary, most importantly, to redistribute money more equitably, as Roosevelt did: take more of it from the rich, pass it on to the poor, because otherwise the country will explode from ever-growing inequality. But these reforms are possible no earlier than 10 years from now, when the generation of politicians changes and a new consensus emerges about where the country should go. And the Democrats are already split. I think the 2022 election could lead to the failure of the Democrats and the rise to power in the Republican Congress.

– It turns out that while the Americans have lost anyway and will be hot?

– It will be very hot, because 50% of the population who were thrown will not be forgotten. Even if you press media, lie to them and try to call them terrorists. These are the same people who grew up in deep America who believe in goodness, organize very well and are armed. They will always appeal to the most important American messages since the times of the War of Independence: if you don’t like the government, you have to take up arms, we have the right to do so. These are not city people who shout a lot, but do nothing.

Now, since they won, all their “six” from Ukraine, Europe and the Baltic states will be inspired, who will consider that everything, they have won, now the old bear needs to be stabbed, mocked, and nothing will happen for it, but if something happens, then The USA will cover us.

For them evil is us

– And how will it be for us in Russia in this situation in the United States?

– It will be bad. Those people who have come to power now are our sworn enemies. In their understanding, America must now fight evil, and evil is us. It is impossible to negotiate with them on the basis of interests, they are slaves to their ideology of exclusivity and permissiveness. They say: we are good, you are bad. All. Putin bad, he must leave, we will achieve this by all means. And now, since they won, all their “six” from Ukraine, from Europe and the Baltic states will be inspired, who will consider that everything, they have won, now the old bear needs to be stabbed, mocked, nothing will happen for this, but if that then the US will cover us. This is the first thing. And the second is that the Biden administration will surely not and cannot have any serious successes within the country. They have nowhere to come from. This means that it will be necessary to distract the people to foreign policy. I cannot guarantee that they will not start a “little war” for this. This is a very good consolidating factor. They will do it without batting an eye.

– Will it be “fun” for us and the Chinese?

– It will be more fun for us than for the Chinese, for now they decide not to do anything drastic with them. The personal money of the people behind the Democrats is very much tied to businesses working with China. Even Joe Biden has very sincere contacts there with that part of the Chinese elite that is oriented towards foreign markets. Is not Si, and those with which Xi is fighting just. But there is a lot of money there. For them, the dream of a global partnership that they have been building for 10 years between the United States and China has not melted yet. They will not aggravate with China. So it turns out that we are the focus of the main blow.

Our only and main chance is to strengthen the country from within, so that the political situation is consolidated, so that the economy grows. The main thing is the economy.

– Will there be friendship with Europe and with NATO, as under Trump, will there be no problems?

– NATO is a political bloc of friends, which in many respects rests on the generation that grew up on post-war and anti-Soviet “Atlantism.” 10 years will pass, new faces will come, for them all this is already irrelevant. They already see that America as it is, and not the ideal one that was “sold” to them. They don’t really need NATO as such. But Europe is a real competitor to the United States in many areas, and since the Americans will need to raise their economy, they will, of course, economically press Europe in the same way as they press everyone else. This is competition, you can’t do anything here. That is, the continents are gradually diverging, this is inevitable. Only, of course, there will be no open abuse, as under Trump.

– But this is a chance for us to slip through the contradictions?

– The states are able to play on many boards at the same time, we have no chance to fly “below the radar”. Our only and main chance is to strengthen the country from the inside, so that the political situation is consolidated, so that the economy grows. The main thing is the economy. If we grow our economy steadily, it doesn’t matter to us at all what they are doing there. This means we will have jobs, and Europeans and others will queue up to our markets. They will not impose any sanctions, because these are their businesses that want to take advantage of our growth and sell something to us. The weak are always crushed and sanctioned. If we grow up, then they will all stand in line, it always has been. All our victories and defeats depend on our economic growth, nothing else.

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