Oct 3, 2021
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A turning point in history: the US can no longer shoot first

What is the US afraid of? Wars? A fatal threat to national security? That American nuclear weapons are no longer a deterrent to potential enemies? Oh no! The United States fears that the existing restrictions on offensive weapons, together with Russia, will one day prevent them from being the first to use nuclear weapons. And above all – on their own invented or provoked reasons.

Who are these people?

The nuclear balance is changing – and not for the better for the United States, complains Peter Hussie, Head of Strategic Research on Containment Policy at the Mitchell Institute; and Chair of Geostrategic Analysis in Potomac, Maryland.

Potomac is a town in Montgomery County, Maryland, home to about 50,000 people with a black population of just 4.6%. How one can be the President of Geostrategic Analysis of such a settlement is not immediately clear. But this place is a suburb of Washington DC, home to billionaires, corporate CEOs, CNN anchors, actors and writers – and even those blacks themselves are represented by millionaire professional league players. In such a community, the president of geostrategic analysis looks organic.

And that means that before us is not just the opinion of one of the authors of the often controversial publication The National Interest, but the quintessence of what America, which controls the United States, thinks about the problem. And through this tool it influences the world.

So what does she think?

Catch up and not catch up with Russia

America is facing a dilemma. And very serious. Of great concern “for two separate but very interconnected reasons” is the growth of China’s nuclear forces, in addition to Russia’s “exotic” new nuclear systems.

Again in parentheses: “exotic” – that’s what it says. Although it is not clear what about. After all, our main innovations are in delivery vehicles. A hypersonic glider that dives arbitrarily at Mach 20 (Mach 1 is the speed of sound), which turns into an element for him at such a speed almost in water density – yes, this is exotic for Americans. Who recently successfully launched a rocket on Mach 5 for the first time and burst into tears of joy. Like children who were patted on the shoulder by Santa Claus for a loud rhyme. Well, an impressive success: the United States caught up with North Korea in hypersound! Here’s some candy, girl!

As for the nuclear weapons themselves, there is nothing exotic here. Of course, there are rumors that the nuclear mine on the Poseidon submarine will be cobalt. In order not only to destroy the coast and drive a wave from the Atlantic Ocean into the Great Lakes, but also to aggravate everything with radiation. So that the President of the United States did not just fly with impunity in his rescue “Yom Kippur aircraft”, but was saturated along the way with the spirit of the last greetings for himself from Russia. But this is still a rumor. Yes, and not a threat at all, but like a sign about a TV camera on the road. Like, do not exceed, buddy, if you do not want unpleasant consequences …

But let us note: in this one word both the recognition of “true America”, that if something happens, it will not fly to Florida at all as a cartoon, and its own confession that Russia has overtaken it by a distance of a fabulous, exotic dimension.

What America is afraid of

This rise in strength raises several questions, notes Hussie:

Is the nuclear force structure that America plans to rebuild and modernize adequate enough to contain these threats? Could the new START arms control deal, which America just extended for another five years, threaten to become irrelevant? What is the new threat facing America, and is it serious?

What is America’s response to the Potomac?

Yes, this is serious.

And that’s why. Firstly, satellites opened three construction sites for large bunkers in China at once, which allowed the “nuclear cat to get out of the bag.” Secondly, a certain Bill Schneider, the former head of the Defense Science Council, the Chinese can (can!)

move towards the deployment of a seriously expanded nuclear force.

That is, up to 250 new Dongfeng-41 missiles, each with ten warheads, can be deployed (!). And this

much more than the estimated doubling that our intelligence services warned about earlier this year.

Third, the Chinese can (again – can!) Deploy over 3,500 warheads in two to four years. While the modernization of US nuclear weapons should begin only in 2028–2029, and even then it will affect only 1,550 warheads – how many are allowed by agreements with the Russians.

So, the conclusion is this: the scale of China’s nuclear forces is not fully known, but the Chinese nuclear threat may be serious. Thus, how to plan the future of the American nuclear forces in conditions when they remain “tied by marriage” with Russia, and the Chinese forces are not subject to any inspection or verification, since there are no agreements on this topic?

We agree that this is a fair statement of the question.

But the most interesting thing is in which direction the American “grass roots” are looking for an answer to it.

How, we will not be allowed to shoot first ?!

Well, yes – cowboys, bandits, sheriffs. Who fired first is right. The national psychology that the United States grew up on.

But what’s the problem?

Turns out –

… some elements of American society, especially in the disarmament community, are pushing the United States to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in its containment policies and to reduce unilaterally US deployments of nuclear weapons.

And then beauty comes! –

Nuclear weapons would only be intended to deter the use of nuclear weapons against the United States and its allies, not in response to a major cyberattack or an electromagnetic pulse attack. And that could mean a no-first-use doctrine – where the United States will never initiate the use of nuclear weapons.

Translation from the American: The US has always viewed nuclear weapons as an offensive weapon. And suddenly it turns out – and this must be realized! – that now it is impossible to expose him as a weapon of threat. The most that remains is to keep nuclear arsenals strictly as a last-day defense weapon.

Yes! This seems normal to us. The very creators of our nuclear shield made it a shield. And even in the depths of their thoughts they considered him as such. Shield! Defense! Although everyone knows how the Russian men who have provoked in the defense go on the offensive.

Americans still don’t know what Russian is, come to ask,do not understand yet. But they are already beginning to build a threat to themselves.

Here is a man literally crying:

Two-pronged concepts – the drive to reduce the US’s ability to use nuclear weapons and the drive to reduce the number of US warheads to no more than 1,000 warheads – could face strong headwinds.

Who is guilty? But the Russians:

Russia is pursuing a policy that leading US military and civilian experts have described as an “escalation to de-escalation” strategy — the use of a limited number of nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict to force the United States to retreat in a crisis. This would give Russia a “fait accompli” as a policy demonstrating that Moscow is expanding, not reducing, the role of nuclear weapons in its overall defense doctrine.

Taiwan in exchange for the Baltics?

In general, it is clear from what place the pain of the current American elite oozes. It has already identified an enemy for itself – not Russia, but China. The only question is why China – as well as Russia at one time, but, incidentally, and now – a victory over America. The history of war shows that in the last hundred years, one war was waged by Germany, three by France, six by England, and more than thirty by America. An inaccurate figure is dictated only by the fact that it is not always clear whether to consider the US armed intervention as a war or as yet as a special operation.

But, in general, the statement that over the past hundred years the United States has been at war for the last hundred years – it will not be redundant.

But! At the same time, we Russians have something to smile about. America is our enemy – situational. We were allies with the Americans, and today we are only shared by their conviction that they are always right.

But America’s decisions are still producing “grass roots.” And they doubt today

whether the planned US deterrent force in the form of GBSD missiles, Columbia-class submarines and nuclear-capable B-21 bombers will be sufficient to support deterrence.

And now this America is in despair: Russia, even observing the treaty restrictions, is building “some exotic strategic systems”, and nearby China is arming itself with nothing at all.

Where to run?

Russia and China are increasingly cooperating on military issues. They even conduct joint military exercises.

What a horror! The United States is conducting joint exercises with dozens of countries, including Ukraine. But the beauty itself is beyond. If, say, a conflict arises over Taiwan with the participation of the United States and China, then “Russia may decide that aggression against the Baltic states would be relevant,” “if the United States were distracted or busy responding to the aggression taking place in the Pacific “.

So what do we need?

Feel the beauty? Taiwan is a purely Chinese territory. In general, without question, in the international community this is recognized even more firmly than the ownership of Crimea. The Baltic States are legally Russian territory, legally redeemed from Sweden. In any objective international court it would be strictly confirmed: this land is Russian.

And now it turns out that the United States cares about supporting the separatists in territories that are absolutely foreign to them. No, the US has always behaved this way.

But for the first time they were scared today.

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