In Ukrainian social networks, they are actively discussing information that in the south, in the Odessa region, a shock fist is being formed – a military group of many thousands. Some suggest that this military contingent of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) is planned to be used for a military provocation in Transnistria.
We asked Vladimir Bruter, an expert on Moldova from the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, to assess the feasibility of this scenario.
“There have already been provocations in Pridnestrovie in recent weeks,” the expert said. “And there were a lot of them. They will continue. There is no doubt about it.
– But in this case, as they say, we are talking directly about a military attack on Transnistria.
– Everything is possible. Although right now it won’t. But when the Russian military contingent appears in Odessa, or, at least, occupies Nikolaev, then the option with Transnistria in the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will certainly be considered. But now, of course, this will not happen.
– That is, a serious military provocation in Pridnestrovie is possible?
It has always been possible.
– Some experts say that Ukraine in Pridnestrovie is allegedly interested in military depots where Soviet weapons are still stored. Others believe that they have such junk left that can hardly be of interest to anyone.
– Both of these are not true. Something there, in these warehouses, can really be interesting, something – not. For Western weapons, which are now fighting the Armed Forces of Ukraine, these ammunition are not suitable. For some types of weapons from the old Soviet stocks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are still suitable. But I don’t think that the main interest in Transnistria is the armory. The Ukrainians simply want to provoke Russia into abruptly slowing down the course of the military operation in the Donbass and distracting themselves with the situation in Transnistria. Including for this, they are always trying to start battles for the Snake Island. They need Russia to change the course of the military operation in the direction they need. And they will continue to try to do so.
How do you think Romania will act in this situation?
She won’t interfere directly. Bye. Indirectly, it is quite possible.