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May 27, 2022
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A blow to Friendship: Ukraine threatens to break off relations with Hungary

A blow to Friendship: Ukraine threatens to break off relations with Hungary

Photo: Alexander Saverkin/TASS

Ukraine may stop the transit of Russian oil to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline in order to put pressure on the country’s authorities. This, during a speech at the Kiev Security Forum, was hinted at by the adviser to the Ukrainian Minister of Energy Elena Zerkal.

The official said that Hungary took advantage of the situation in Ukraine and actually began to blackmail the European Union, but Kyiv “has an excellent leverage in its hands – this is the Druzhba oil pipeline.” She recalled that there is a separate pipe line going to Hungary.

“In my opinion, it would be very appropriate if with him (the oil pipeline – OK.) something happened. But again, it is in the hands of the government and the president to decide political issues, whether we really want to speak with Orban in the language that he understands and that he imposes on the European Union, or we are not ready for this yet, ”said Zerkal.

This statement was made against the backdrop of Hungary’s decision to veto an embargo that the EU intends to impose on Russian oil supplies. This ban was supposed to be included in the sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia, but so far it has not been possible to agree on it. The rejection of Russian oil in Hungary is called a disaster, the country’s prime minister Viktor Orban He compared the possible embargo to the “atomic bomb”. It will take years to rebuild the country’s energy sector, he said. Budapest is demanding a five-year delay, as well as compensation for the cost of restructuring the fuel and energy industry, adapted to heavy Russian oil. According to the government, the full modernization may require up to €18 billion.

Recall also that the other day the Hungarian authorities introduced a state of emergency in the country “in connection with the situation in Ukraine”, which gives the prime minister the right to take any measures to protect financial and energy security without the consent of parliament. Many experts considered this a signal not only to Brussels, but also to Kyiv – Hungary can begin to solve the accumulated questions for it by emergency measures. This has become especially relevant against the backdrop of the actual “creeping annexation” of the western regions of Ukraine by Poland, which Hungary will hardly turn a blind eye to, given that 10 percent of the population of the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine are ethnic Hungarians.

So it is not in the interests of Kyiv to heat up the situation now. Moreover, he cannot make such decisions without the approval of Brussels and Washington.

“Of course, this is an instrument of pressure on Hungary,” he said. Associate Professor of the Financial University under the Government of Russia Gevorg Mirzayan.

“Budapest is not just blocking the oil embargo, but is also pursuing an anti-Ukrainian policy. It does not allow the supply of weapons to Ukraine through its territory, and also, apparently, is preparing for the occupation of Transcarpathia. And now Ukraine is actually actually blackmailing the Hungarian leadership. The problem is that this blackmail can backfire on her.

“SP”: – Brussels will give the go-ahead for this? It seems that the European authorities themselves would not mind punishing Hungary …

“Brussels may withdraw itself from this process. The problem is different. The Hungarian leadership may sharply toughen its position and generally block any further sanctions against Russia, as well as the allocation of any EU money to Ukraine.

“SP”: – How to understand “something can happen”? Ukraine will block the pipe? Or will he stage an accident and blame everything on “unknown patriots” or a Russian projectile?

– Lots of options. And all of the above, and some new ones that Ukrainian creatives will come up with. The reason for the stop is not important, the main thing is the stop itself, as well as the inability to eliminate the problem within a certain amount of time. Of course, from the point of view of the state interests of Ukraine, this is branded madness. However, Ukrainian creatives have long spit on national interests. For them, the creative process itself is important.

“SP”: – Budapest will succumb to blackmail? Is the situation a stalemate for him?

“Budapest will not succumb to blackmail. Viktor Orban has declared a state of emergency in the country, so he has every opportunity to take emergency measures to unblock the pipeline. Up to the entry of troops into the territory of Transcarpathia.

“SP”: – And if something really happens to the pipe? How will the Hungarians behave?

– I do not know. Perhaps he will try to buy oil through other countries. They must have spare power.

“SP”: – By the way, about the state of emergency and the possibility for Hungary to resolve issues with Ukraine by force. Against the background of the creeping annexation of Ukraine by Poland, many experts believe that Hungary will not sit back and watch…

— Of course, Hungary will not sit and watch. If the division of Ukraine begins, then Hungary will participate in it. But she should not start the section. Either the Ukrainian regime must crumble completely, or the Poles must begin the partition.

Director of the EAEU Institute Vladimir Lepekhin reminds that the former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko proposed to completely block part of the “Friendship”, which runs through the Ukrainian territory.

– Poroshenko needs to identify his radicalism and adherence to principles in the struggle for a future seat in the power of Ukraine. And besides, he believes that Russia will never dare to close the Druzhba pipeline. Therefore, Hungary has nothing to do with it. The Ukrainian authorities can cut off deliveries to Hungary even without us. At the same time, if Poroshenko knows why he proposes to stop the operation of the Druzhba oil pipeline, then another ukroidiot Zerkal only stupidly “mirrors” Poroshenko – nothing more.

“SP”: – Does Kyiv have legal opportunities to take and turn off the “pipe”?

– Kyiv does not need legal grounds to take and turn off the pipe in any of the directions. For example, they stole, steal and will continue to steal Russian gas as far as possible. They have already destroyed everything they can in Ukraine. Why don’t they eventually destroy the gas transportation system in Ukraine?

Ukroidiots have already cut off gas supplies to the Donbass, citing shooting in the pipe area – they want to disrupt the cleansing by the Russian troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area. So at any moment, the ukrobandits can do anything with any section of the gas or oil pipeline – and when Kyiv is threatened with defeat, they can decide to blow up the gas pipeline out of revenge not only for Russia, but also for the West, which did not ensure their victory.

“SP”: – Budapest, in your opinion, will succumb to blackmail? What if something really happened to the pipe?

– If Budapest succumbs to blackmail, then not from Ukraine, but from Brussels. But, most likely, Brussels can bribe Budapest, not intimidate.

“SP”: – And the West will give Ukraine the go-ahead? It is also beneficial for them to put pressure on Hungary, but this can create a dangerous precedent when Ukraine can dictate terms to any EU country that buys oil and gas from Russia…

– The West has long given any good to Ukraine. And, I repeat once again, there is no pressure in the EU on its members. At least not on the Hungarian elites. Only bribery can work here, as in the case of Turkey. Turkey, too, is not afraid of either the EU, or NATO, or the United States, and seeks to make the most of the current situation in Ukraine. Orban does the same.

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