The Ministry of Economic Development predicts the dollar exchange rate in 2022 at about 72 rubles, while the average rate in 2021, according to the head of the department Maxim Reshetnikovawill amount to 73.6 rubles. He announced this the other day at a meeting of the State Duma. However, not all forecasts are so optimistic.
Financial analyst of the stock market Vladimir Levchenko until the end of this year, a serious fall in the ruble exchange rate is not expected, but in the future it does not exclude even 100 rubles per dollar. According to him, this will depend on several factors, however, he drew attention to the fact that not a single financial structure, both international and Russian, predicted a serious fall in the ruble.
“Until the end of the year, strong movements should not be expected. The existing budget rule smooths out possible fluctuations in the ruble. Plus, the fact that the population has a fairly low reserve of foreign exchange liquidity plays against the ruble. To see a strong movement, the market must sell currency together with the population, ”he said during a press conference at the NSN.
Among the risks for the ruble, he sees a drop in consumption volumes due to energy prices. He recalled that a similar situation was observed in 2008.
“At the same time, it is probably not worth waiting for the ruble to fall several times, as it was, for example, in 2014. The fall in the ruble exchange rate in the image and likeness of 2008, when the ruble lost about 50% against the dollar, this is quite possible. We can see the level of 100 rubles, but this is definitely not this year, ”the analyst said.
Another very important factor that plays against the ruble, he considers the actions of the Central Bank. In his opinion, the decision of the Central Bank to sharply raise the rate by 0.75, which was announced last Friday, was a shock for the market.
“On this, the ruble exchange rate rose sharply, less than 70 rubles began to be given per dollar, but this led to the fact that the debt market became inverted,” said Vladimir Levchenko.
However, according to the analyst, now the ruble has one more support – these are attempts to smooth out inflation by strengthening the ruble exchange rate.
“Locally, in the short term, this will certainly help, but in the long term it will create even worse conditions for the functioning of the Russian economy, because this will happen exclusively through restrictions on the free market and through a fall in the rate of profit in most sectors of our economy and through the emergence of a deficit”, – he is sure.
At the same time, the increase in the key rate by the lockdown of Russians is being taught to higher inflation, the analyst said.
“That is, they tell us that, on the one hand, they are fighting this inflation, on the other hand, I think many of us, having gone to the store before the lockdown, noticed that prices have moved up. Everyone scares each other that this is not for ten days, but maybe more, so prices can be driven up, they will still buy. And if prices rise, then this is inflation. Excuse me, Mrs. Nabiullina, weren’t your words at the beginning of the year that inflation will not be of such magnitude, that it is temporary? And where are your competencies then? ” – sarcastically Vladimir Levchenko.
However, he is sure that all the central banks of the world are now signing their own incompetence.
His colleague, Director for Strategy of Investment Company FINAM Yaroslav Kabakov believes that there is no point in talking about the prospects for the dollar at 100 rubles.
“We have a Central Bank. Which at certain points starts to act: takes action to increase the key rate, to admonish residents that everything will be fine. But the risks are quite tangible, ranging from energy prices to a slowdown in the growth rate of the world’s leading economies, ”he said.
According to him, both the United States and China are now showing not the best results compared to those forecasts that were made only a few months ago. At the same time, he suggests not to forget that the Russian economy is not a safe haven either.
“If something starts on international markets, the Russian ruble and the actions of the Central Bank will be quite pragmatic. The central bank will protect the leading export-oriented industries. And you no longer have to predict where the ruble will fly, but you can only rejoice if you bought the currency, ”the expert stated.
He also noted that the Ministry of Economic Development does not deny the possibility of “black swans”, which can significantly affect the market.
At the same time, in the medium and long term, in his opinion, the ruble will gradually weaken against the dollar and the euro, since the Russian economy is not sufficiently diversified.
Vladimir Levchenko, in turn, believes that the Russian economy looks much better than any major economy in the world, but believes that in the medium term there will be a “shock blow” associated with a sharp drop in demand.
“People will simply run out of money,” he said.
Experts also believe that the purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance speaks directly to the fact that the very expensive ruble is unprofitable for our government.
“The most important factor that strengthens the ruble is the extremely low monetization of the Russian economy, that is, the size of the monetary base and the money supply in relation to our economy is very low. If you start to increase it, it will start to put pressure on the ruble, ”explained Vladimir Levchenko.
The ruble is also affected by the revenue of export-oriented companies, added Yaroslav Kabakov.